There is a certain “Dumb and Dumber” movie quote spoken by a certain newly flush-with-cash actor that sums up the 49ers’ playoff odds.
“So you’re telling me there’s a chance?”
That’s where things stand for the physically battered and emotionally bruised 49ers after Sunday’s slate of NFL games. Somehow, after losing to the Rams 12-6 in a sorry showing last Thursday, there’s still a chance they could sneak into the postseason and even win the NFC West.
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Yes, they are currently in last place in their division with their 6-8 record. But — stay with me here — if basically every other division rival implodes, they could find themselves atop the NFC West. First, in the upcoming Week 16 games, the 49ers would obviously have to beat the Dolphins in Miami. Then, the Rams would have to lose to the very terrible Jets, the Seahawks would have to fold to the actually good Vikings (Hi Sam Darnold!), and the Cardinals, who are one game ahead of the Niners in the division, would have to lose to the 3-11 Carolina Panthers.
Easy!
Then, in Week 17, the 49ers would have to defeat the Lions in a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship Game. The Lions are dealing with some injury issues of their own, so despite being clearly the better team at 12-2, it’s theoretically possible Kyle Shanahan’s club could steal this game, perhaps if Thanos deploys a well-timed snap to the entire Detroit offensive staff. Then, the Seahawks just need to lose to the 4-10 Bears, and the Cardinals need to beat the Rams — something they already did by 31 points earlier this year.
Week 18 is the simplest of all. The 49ers need to beat the Cardinals, and the Rams-Seahawks game on Jan. 5 needs to end in a tie. Since the NFL updated its regular season overtime rules in 2017 to make the extra session 10 minutes instead of 15, a tie has only happened seven times, according to Pro Football Reference. It didn’t happen all of last season, though, and, in fact, it hasn’t happened since Dec. 4, 2022 — but hey, that’s why we play all 18 weeks, right?
If all of the above happens, then the 49ers would finish 9-8. The Rams and the Seahawks would both finish 8-8-1, and the Cardinals would finish 7-7, putting San Francisco at the top of the NFC West and into the playoffs.
There’s also an entirely different convoluted way the Niners could make the playoffs as an NFC wild card. There are a few twists this could take, but the upshot is that if the Washington Commanders win just once in their next three games — versus the Eagles, the Falcons and the Cowboys — then they will knock San Francisco out of wild-card contention.
Here’s the bottom line: You can probably wash your lucky 49ers playoff jersey and hang it up until next fall. But if you’re the uber-superstitious type, go ahead and let it marinate just a little while longer.