Only three players are “dead-mortal locks” to be with New England long-term, Tom E. Curran writes.
At last year’s NFL Owners Meetings, Robert Kraft made clear what he thinks is necessary to carry a team to long-term excellence.
“In the end, you can’t win in this league consistently unless you have a first-rate quarterback and a first-rate coach.”
Nobody’s gonna fight him on that. But if all you have are those two – and with Drake Maye and Mike Vrabel, the Patriots tentatively think they do – you’re still screwed.
And right now, the Patriots don’t have much more. As the team prepares for its latest “MOST CRITICAL DRAFT THIS DECADE!!!!” I decided to take a layman’s stab at stacking the roster.
Who’s part of their present AND their future? Who’s part of just their present? Who’s on borrowed time?
The Patriots currently have three players you’d call dead-mortal locks to be here through the end of the decade, barring injury: Christian Gonzalez. Drake Maye. Milton Williams.
After that? They have no long-term, upper-tier players with demonstrated production at any of these premier spots: left tackle, edge, or wide receiver. Nor at the next-level spots like safety, running back, center or linebacker. They don’t even have a kicker.
So, who are the most important Patriots right now? Who’s in a safe space that the team isn’t looking to replace?
To put this list together, I considered previous production, age, estimated projected production (I just eyeballed it … not an analytics exercise), contract status and leadership role. And I kept it mostly to the prime players we’re all familiar with. So no Titus Leo.
This is just a pre-draft snapshot. Your results may vary.
Christian Gonzalez, CB
A 22-year-old who’s been nothing but brilliant at a premier position in 20 games over two years. He was second-team All-Pro last season. He’s got two more years on his rookie deal and the Patriots can pick up his fifth-year option in 2027. Best combo of age, production and projection.
Drake Maye, QB
Also 22. Obviously, quarterback trumps corner. And Maye is under team control through 2028 if the team grabs his fifth-year option.
The reason I have him No. 2? He needs to leave the field more often with his team having more points than the opponent. UNC was 2-4 in his last six starts in 2023. The Patriots were 3-9 last year. UNC wasn’t great and the Patriots stunk.
He will likely rise to being a Pro Bowler at least. And maybe elite. Just want to see him be reason No. 1 they win games in 2025. And also to be a little less adventurous with some of his throws.
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Milton Williams, DT
The Patriots made a franchise-record financial commitment to a 26-year-old who was the most coveted defensive player in free agency. He’s won a Super Bowl and played in nine playoff games in his four-year career. Seems all business about his approach, too.
Hunter Henry, TE
He’s most likely not going to be here when the team gets good. But in terms of being a productive member of the offense (he’s been their most reliable since he got here), a solid leader and character guy and his immediate relevance to the 2025 Patriots, he’s way up here.
It’s Henry’s combo of immediately vital and demonstrated production that overrides the fact some of the next few guys will be making impacts for a while.
Keion White, DE
He’s a beast. The Patriots have him under contract for two more years and his intensity and upside could — COULD — propel him to being one of the most disruptive players in the league. But he was clearly disenchanted with the direction of the team at the end of last season.
Ideally, he falls in love with the program this year under defensive coordinator Terrell Williams and becomes part of a devastating front along with Milton Williams and Christian Barmore.
Christian Barmore, DT
He’s 25 and signed through 2028 (though the last two seasons have massive cap hits). The Patriots decided last offseason they want him here for the long haul with an $84M deal. But the serious health situation that arose for him (blood clots) unfortunately makes his long-term potential murky. Fingers crossed.
Mike Onwenu, OL
He’s the best offensive lineman on the worst offensive line in football. He’s 27 but is carrying a $25M cap hit in 2026, courtesy of the big deal he signed last year. He really needs to play better in 2025 to solidify his spot for the future.
Marcus Jones, CB
What the hell is Jones doing here? Well, he’s a really good slot corner. He’s a very good returner. He’s a good guy. He’s going to be important this year and — even though this is the last year of his deal — he seems the kind of player the team would want to lock up.
Moving on from Jonathan Jones and signing Carlton Davis cleared the way for Marcus Jones to take over that slot spot.
Kyle Dugger, S
He just turned 29. His brilliant seasons in 2021 and 2022 were followed up by average seasons the past two years.
There are reasons he slipped. Injuries and team-wide disarray didn’t help. And he worked hard to be a leader as things splintered. But he’s one of the most highly-paid safeties in football and his age and recent production put him in a prove-it situation as well.
Robert Spillane, LB
A soon-to-be-30-year-old, 6-foot-2, 220-pound linebacker? That’s basically the same size as Dugger at safety. But Spillane is newly-minted with a three-year, $33 million deal, so the investment is there in a player who everyone raves about in terms of production and selflessness. So he’s not going anywhere.
Stefon Diggs, WR
If Diggs plays like he has for the lion’s share of his career, he’ll go way up this list. A good, healthy and positive Diggs would be vital to the arc of Drake Maye.
But the initial financial commitment to the 31-year-old is modest as he returns from injury. It gets rich in a hurry the next two years, though, with salaries of $26.5 million per year. The boom or bust aspect makes Diggs hard to project.
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Anfernee Jennings, LB
He’s so sneaky good. At 27, he’s under contract for two more seasons. One of the team’s most dependable and productive players.
Brenden Schooler, S
A second-team All-Pro last year, he’s 27 and signed through 2027 with $3 million cap hits (or so) all the way through. The Patriots value their lead special teams guy and I don’t see that ending soon.
DeMario Douglas, WR
This is Pop’s time to shine. He’s been the most productive wideout in (does this sound familiar?) the worst wideout room in the league.
With Josh McDaniels coming in, Douglas has a chance to be a catalyst in the Edelman-Amendola-Welker-Troy Brown mold. Probably not at the same clip — the build and physicality of those guys allowed them to be used relentlessly. But he’s 24 and has two years left on his rookie deal. If he’s not seeing 100 targets, I’ll be stunned.
Antonio Gibson, RB
I found Gibson’s first season in New England fascinating. Down the miserable stretch in 2024, he worked his ass off when his carries rose. He finished with 4.5 yards per carry. He’s a legitimate receiving threat, can be a slasher or run with power and he’s 26 with two years left at $4.5M cap hits.
The team is taking a running back in the draft. But I feel like Gibson’s job is safer than Rhamondre Stevenson’s.
Harold Landry, LB
Coming in on a three-year deal with $26 million fully guaranteed ensures Landry’s spot for the near future. He’s dependable (played 17 games the past two seasons), productive (70 tackles the past two years) and gets to the quarterback (31.5 sacks in his past three years).
Having played for Mike Vrabel in Tennessee, it logically follows he’s a “Vrabel guy,” especially since the Patriots went right after him in free agency.
Garrett Bradbury, C
He was not great with the Vikings in 2024. He’s 29 and here on a two-year deal to play center. He’s likely a duct-tape solution until the Patriots draft and develop their next center. But he was a first-rounder in 2019, has started each of the 88 games in the NFL he’s been available for and is by no means a slouch.
His former coach, Kevin O’Connell, told me at the Owner’s Meetings that Bradbury would have a great impact on Maye. So that’s a plus.
Garrett Bradbury knows exactly what Stefon Diggs will bring to the Patriots’ offense, having played with him in Minnesota
Morgan Moses, RT
First impression of the 6-foot-6, 314-pound, 34-year-old right tackle when we met him? “Holy crap. What a professional.”
The team has Moses signed through his 36-year-old season in 2027. We’ll see if he gets there. That’s a lot. But the professionalism and charisma he showed that first day is EXACTLY the kind of dynamic the team needs right now.
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Carlton Davis, CB
A three-year, $44.5 million deal for the 28-year-old means the team is putting heavy stock in him being a bookend elite corner for Gonzalez. He had a tremendous season last year with the Lions but the Detroit defense was a handful.
For Davis to be the player the Patriots are paying for, the non-existent pass rush of the past two seasons has to materialize.
Mack Hollins, WR
A 6-foot-4, 221-pound receiver who had a career-best 57 catches for 690 yards with Josh McDaniels in 2022 out in Vegas.
He’s 31 and on a two-year deal with special teams responsibilities, but he’s another free agent add the team seems to love for his competitiveness and unselfishness.
Marte Mapu, S
Entering his third season, it’s still hard to pin down what Mapu will be. In 10 games, he played 72 percent of the defensive snaps last year in his hybrid safety/LB role. He was good in coverage and finished the year with 46 total tackles. He’s been blocked out at safety by Dugger and Jabrill Peppers and to a degree at linebacker as well.
He’s a third-round pick who is 6-foot-2, 230. There has to be a role to create. One would think. We’ll have to see.
Dell Pettus, S
A UDFA who made the team last year as a safety and hits like a thunderclap. He’s going to stick because of his special teams prowess, but even though he’s a smidge undersized at 5-foot-10, 205, he’s worth keeping an eye on as a long-term fixture.
Christian Elliss, LB
The Patriots matched an offer made to him as a restricted free agent so the linebacker is in their plans for the next two years. Like Jennings, he’s a sneaky productive player with 80 tackles last year.
Austin Hooper, TE
A very useful complement to Hunter Henry at tight end, Hooper is 30 and has now signed one-year deals with the Patriots two years in a row. He’s a good player, catching 45 of the 59 balls sent his way last year. He’s not part of the future, though, as the contract indicates.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB
He’s fallen off so badly the past two years. After a 1,040-yard season in 2022 with 69 catches and 5.0 yards per carry, he wasn’t as good as his backups (Ezekiel Elliott in 2023, Gibson in 2024). Last year, he had seven fumbles and averaged 3.9 YPC.
He got a new deal last offseason that has an APY of $9 million. His valuation from the website OverTheCap.com was about $5 million. He’s got the fifth-highest deal in the league among running backs based on total value.
Was EVERYTHING attributable to the hellacious offensive line that had Stevenson getting croaked as soon as he got the ball? Probably not. He needs to kick it in.
Is it time for the Patriots to move on from Rhamondre Stevenson? Tom Curran and Phil Perry weigh in on Arbella Early Edition
Kendrick Bourne, WR
Had 55 catches for 800 yards in 2021 with Josh McDaniels as the OC. He’s been lost since.
Bourne turns 30 at the start of training camp. While he figures to be a trusted option for McDaniels once again, the whole room needs an upgrade, so Bourne is probably winding down his time here.
Caedan Wallace, OT
In a perfect world, the third-round pick from last year would have easily made the switch from right tackle to left tackle, stayed healthy and entrenched himself as the LT of the future.
Didn’t happen. He hurt his ankle and played six games. If he has better luck this year and shows promise he could rocket up this list. But right now, totally TBD.
Layden Robinson, OL
A fourth-round pick last year, Robinson started 11 games. The offensive line was so jumbled all year it’s hard to tell who the team will want to be where long-term.
Robinson started mainly at right guard. That’s probably Onwenu’s spot. So, can Robinson successfully flip to left guard? Is he versatile and coachable enough to carve a niche? Everything is TBD.
Kayshon Boutte, WR
He was the team’s most productive outside receiver last year with 43 catches for 589 yards (13.7 YPC). He has unreal body control, (usually) excellent hands and a good feel for getting open. He also has had a lot to say, and I’m not sure how down with the details any of the wideouts were last year.
Actually, I do. They were not down with the details. He is one of three recently drafted wideouts who needs to make radical improvement or likely pack his bags.
Jahlani Tavai, LB
Just like every single other player the Patriots gave an extension to last offseaon, Tavai’s performance slipped in 2024. The 29-year-old was terrific in 2023 with Ja’Whaun Bentley next to him but once Bentley was hurt, Tavai’s role seemed to change.
He got picked on in coverage, was part of an ineffective run defense and said near the end of the season that Patriots fans who booed needed to “know their place.” He went to the time-worn defense of saying fans wouldn’t like it if he came to their house or place of work and booed.
When will these guys realize that if players paid fans $500 for the right to watch them work at their cubicle, they might not mind a boo or two if they were underperforming?
The Patriots can use 2023 Tavai for the long term. Not 2024 Tavai.
Jabrill Peppers, S
Peppers is an excellent player signed through 2027. I could make the argument he was the team’s MVP in 2022 and 2023. But last year’s arrest really cast doubt on how big a role he’ll have going forward under the Mike Vrabel Regime.
Maybe Vrabel hears Peppers’ side of things, believes him, trusts him and moves forward with him as a staple player. But given the message sent time and again that the team wants the best atmosphere possible, Peppers will have to be pretty persuasive.
Cole Strange, OL
The 2022 first-rounder is already a man without a country. He played two games last year after having knee surgery in the offseason for an injury he tried to play through in 2023. He’s played 29 of a possible 51 games.
The Patriots almost certainly won’t pick up his fifth-year option, so he’s got to make himself relevant at guard or center in a hurry. Great guy. Hardworking. But snakebitten by injury and definitely over-drafted and somewhat undersized.
Ja’Lynn Polk, WR
The 37th overall pick last year was quite possibly the worst wideout in football last year. He had 10 catches on 27 targets for 78 yards when The Athletic suggested in November that he looked like a bust. From there, Polk went on to catch two more balls. He was thrown six. He gained nine yards.
Polk was actually useful in training camp. He looked like he could play. He carried himself like he could play. He couldn’t play. It’s hard to cut a second-rounder after one season. But it’s not impossible.
Javon Baker, WR
It’s not as hard to cut a fourth-rounder after one season. And unless one-catch Baker does a complete 180 from last season, that’s probably the fate that awaits.