It was certainly a memorable 2024 season for the Vikings. Sam Darnold’s career revival before his late-season crash and the free-agent additions contributed heavily to a 14-win season led by an outstanding coaching job from Kevin O’Connell, Brian Flores, and the rest of the staff.
The Vikings fell short in the playoff loss to the Rams following the poor performance in the regular season finale at Detroit, which cost the Vikings the top seed and the division title.
Vikings Offseason Road Map to Playoff Success in 2025
The good news is the team can build on a fine season with plenty of talent on both sides of the ball, a good young kicker, and an excellent head coach in O’Connell. Plus, it appears Brian Flores will be back as DC with only one head coaching job still open (and the Saints are expected to hire Eagles OC Kellen Moore after the Super Bowl).
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Here’s my roadmap for GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and O’Connell to lead a return to the playoffs as NFC North champs (after battling Detroit and Green Bay again) or in a wild card spot and then win one or more playoff games:
Road map for Vikings’ success in 2025:
The Coaching Carousel Spins while the SB Teams are Set 00:00 / 1:03:12
1. Turn over the keys to McCarthy: I applaud the season Darnold had for 16 games. He earned a Pro Bowl spot in a career-best season. Yes, it’s great to win 14 games (twice as many people expected, including Vegas with their 6.5 wins projection, although I did project nine wins before the season, but I thought McCarthy would take over in Week 9, which was short-circuited by his preseason knee injury).
Here’s the biggest question facing the Vikings organization leaders: how can they trust Darnold in a big game after he laid an egg against the Lions and Rams at crunch time? I think of Patrick Mahomes as the 10th overall pick in 2017 (same spot McCarthy was selected last year) and how Mahomes backed up Alex Smith in his rookie year, then Andy Reid made Mahomes the starter in his second season, and he led the Chiefs to the AFC title game while earning league MVP honors. I’m not saying McCarthy will be Mahomes, but it’s time to see what he can do, even if there are some growing pains early.
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We do know McCarthy was a clutch player in college, especially in the big games, unlike Darnold in the last two games. The NFL is a big step up, but McCarthy led Michigan to the 2023 national championship and was great as a passer and runner in the playoffs and title game.
I like McCarthy’s chance to succeed quickly if he stays healthy and the offensive line plays better (see No. 2 below). He clearly has one of the league’s best supporting casts at wide receiver, tight end, and quality running backs if Aaron Jones returns and one of the NFL’s top QB-whisperers in O’Connell to coach him up.
I would try to re-sign Darnold at a slight raise over his $10 million from last season, but I wouldn’t franchise tag him at close to $40 million. If Darnold gets a big offer elsewhere, let him go and try to sign Daniel Jones as the veteran backup or short-term bridge or find another vet option who is more reliable than Nick Mullens if the backup is needed for a few weeks (although Mullens was better last season than in 2023 on the few snaps he played).
2. Improve the interior offensive line: Darnold was indecisive, inaccurate, and held the ball too long in the last two games, but it wasn’t all his fault in the end. The offensive line did not play well, especially the interior threesome of center Garrett Bradbury and guards Dalton Risner and Blake Brandel.
The Vikings should tap into their estimated $70 million 2025 salary cap room to sign one of the best centers (Atlanta’s Drew Dalman or Indy’s Ryan Kelly) and one top guard (Kansas City’s Trey Smith, Indy’s Will Fries or Detroit’s Kevin Zeitler). Then, use the team’s first-round pick (No. 24 overall) to pick another guard if his grade warrants it (or use that first-round pick on a top corner or DT).
If the Vikings trade or release Bradbury, they’ll gain $3.6 million in 2025 cap room, which they can use to sign a top free-agent center.
Let’s also remember that Christian Darrisaw’s return as an elite left tackle will be an upgrade over Cam Robinson, who played fairly well but is not Darrisaw. Perhaps Robinson could be re-signed and move inside to guard if he doesn’t find big tackle offers in free agency.
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3. Re-sign Aaron Jones and Cam Akers but draft an explosive young back as a later-round project: Jones had a career-high 1,138 rushing yards, but he was banged up by the end of the season. He should be re-signed on a similar one-year, $7 million deal (plus active-roster incentives as he had last season) and then cut down his snap count next season so he can be full strength come playoff time as he was for the Packers in 2023 (with five straight late-season 100-plus yard rushing games including the two playoff games). Also, keep Ty Chandler as a second or third back, as he has talent and should continue to improve as an RB and kickoff returner.
4. Re-sign Byron Murphy before he hits the open market: Murphy is coming off his best season with six interceptions (3rd in the league), 14 passes defended, and 81 tackles as he started every game (after missing three games in 2023) and made his first Pro Bowl.
The Vikings’ top three corners (Murphy, Stephon Gilmore, and Shaq Griffin) are all headed to free agency. Murphy should be signed for a deal in the $17 million per year range. Then I think Gilmore is worth bringing back at his same deal ($7 million base salary plus incentives for active roster games, play time, and interceptions) or, better yet, sign a quality starting free agent corner who is a lot younger than Gilmore (who turns 35 in September) for the money they would’ve paid Gilmore but that’s if there’s a good one available.
If the Vikings don’t draft a corner in the first round, then they could pick a corner with a likely third-round compensatory pick or a fifth-round pick. 2023 third-rounder Mekhi Blackmon will return from his ACL injury. He has talent and needs to step up as a third or fourth corner in his third season. Griffin played decently, and I’d bring him back on another one-year deal if they don’t draft a corner in the first or third round. And Dwight McGlothern is an intriguing option as a young corner who was undrafted last year and looked good in preseason.
5. Take a free agent or draft swing at a defensive lineman who can pressure the QB up the middle: Harrison Phillips is a good player who was extended, and Jalen Redmond looked good at times as he took play time away from Jerry Tillery and Jonathan Bullard who are average players.
The Vikings could use an upgrade on the defensive line via free agency and possibly the draft, although the small number of picks limits them, so perhaps 2026 (when they have more picks, including in the first three rounds) will be a time to reload with young draftees on the D-line.
6. Get Dallas Turner stronger and give him a bigger role in 2025: the Vikings’ second No. 1 pick last year showed flashes of his potentially elite talent, but he only played eight snaps in the playoff game. Turner had three sacks and 20 tackles in his rookie season and should be the third edge rusher alongside Pro Bowlers Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel, ahead of Pat Jones and Jihad Ward, who are both pending free agents and should not be priority re-signings at a position of strength where Turner needs to play more after the strength coaches bulk him up.
Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images.
7. At safety, bring back Harrison Smith, but don’t break the bank for Cam Bynum: Smith played well in his 13th season (three interceptions, 11 passes defended, and 96 tackles, including nine in the playoff game). Flores needs to convince Smith to return.
Bynum is an ok safety but misses too many one-on-one tackles. The Vikings can try to re-sign him, but they shouldn’t put big money into him. Theo Jackson can step into Bynum’s role as a starting safety alongside Smith and the versatile Josh Metellus. Perhaps 2023 fourth-rounder Jay Ward can step up in his third season, or the team can draft a safety and quickly develop him or sign an outside free agent.
8. The kicking game is fine with the talented Will Reichard at kicker, Ryan Wright as a good enough punter (and a solid holder), and Pro Bowl long snapper Andrew DePaolo. The later-round draft picks and some free-agent pickups can help the cover units.
The Vikings need a more explosive punt returner than Brandon Powell. The Vikings ranked last in punt returns. Chandler has a chance to be a good kickoff returner, but the Vikings need to improve there, too, as they ranked 31st.
Jeff’s Super Bowl Pick: I’ve had enough of the Kansas City Chiefs with their obnoxious, sexist, and homophobic kicker, Harrison Butker, and the Chiefs fans’ annoying tomahawk chop chant. I do like Andy Reid. But I’m also pulling for the Eagles since one of our IFA agent firm clients—fullback Khari Blasingame—is a great guy who plays for Philly.
It will be a fun matchup. Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts are terrific playmaking quarterbacks, and it will be fascinating to see if the Chiefs can contain Saquon Barkley’s running.
Mahomes does not run much in the regular season (3.6 attempts per game this season), but he cranks up his run game in the postseason (seven carries against Houston in the divisional round and 11 vs. Buffalo in the AFC title game, including a 10-yard touchdown run to put the Chiefs ahead in the fourth quarter).
The running of both starting quarterbacks will be a major factor in Sunday’s game. Hurts’ rushes are often scripted with play-action rollouts and his renowned Tush Push. Mahomes’ running is more of an X-factor. He’s just as dangerous as Hurts on the ground, with his runs almost always coming on scrambles and off-schedule plays that are so difficult to defend.
I like this stat, courtesy of our Vikings Territory contributor, Mark Craig of the StarTribune: In his four previous Super Bowls, Mahomes had 23 carries (not including victory formation plays) for 196 yards (an average of 8.5), one touchdown, and 13 first downs.
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The Eagles defenders who faced Mahomes in the Super Bowl two years ago are certainly aware of his game-changing runs. His 26-yarder with 2:55 left to set up the winning field goal in that 38-35 victory when he played with a sprained ankle. He rushed for 44 yards on six attempts in that game, during which he also threw three TD passes with no turnovers.
Mahomes had nine runs for a team-leading 66 yards and five first downs in last year’s Super Bowl win over the 49ers. Included were critical runs on the winning drive in overtime of 8 yards on 4th-and-1 and 19 yards on 3rd-and-1 while behind 22-19. These plays set up his 3-yard TD pass with six seconds left.
The Eagles’ excellent defensive coordinator, Vic Fangio, emphasizes the importance of keeping the Chiefs quarterback contained. When Mahomes drops back, he’ll likely have First-team All-Pro linebacker Zack Baun in a spy role.
I learned my lesson last season when I picked against Mahomes in playoff games at Buffalo and Baltimore. So when the Eagles pressure Mahomes (which they should do with their strong rotation of pass rushers), I look for him to scramble and complete passes or run for big plays.
Mahomes has also been careful down the stretch to avoid turnovers (no interceptions in his last eight games), knowing the Chiefs have a fine defense (9th ranked in the regular season and No. 2 in 2023). He and the Chiefs are 13-0 in one-score games this season, and this game should be close, so that is another factor in the Chiefs’ favor.
Mahomes’ playmaking as a passer is a given, but his big-play ability as a runner in Super Bowls should be the difference maker on Sunday as the Chiefs and their star quarterback achieve an unprecedented three-peat.
I pick Kansas City 30-27, but I hope the Eagles pull off the upset.