The Minnesota Vikings have the NFL’s seventh-best Super Bowl odds entering Week 6, a sweet development for a team only expected to win six or seven games back in the summer.
The 5 Biggest Surprises for the Vikings So Far
Minnesota showcases a flawless 5-0 record to begin the 2024 campaign, with the Detroit Lions on the agenda in eight days.
Kirby Lee-Imagn Images. The Vikings defeated the New York Jets in London, running their 2024 start-of-season win streak to five games.
And with the bye expiring in a couple of days, these are the five big surprises for the 2024 Vikings, ranked in ascending order (No. 1 = top surprise).
5. The Murderous Schedule … Didn’t Matter
Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images.
These are the Vikings’ wins so far:
New York Jets — W (23-17) New York Giants — W (28-6) San Francisco 49ers — W (23-17) Houston Texans — W (34-7) Green Bay Packers — W (31-29)
According to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), the Vikings have played the league’s sixth-toughest schedule through five weeks. Minnesota also leads the NFL in victory margin, defeating teams by an average of 12.6 points per game. And, yes, that includes the aforementioned four Super Bowl contenders.
Per Sharp Football Analysis, Minnesota undertook the NFL’s third-hardest schedule in 2024, a raw deal for a team that finished in third place inside the NFC North a season ago. Thankfully for the team’s sake, a brutally tricky schedule simply hasn’t mattered.
The “easy” part of the schedule is about 2-3 weeks away. Minnesota is conducting its flawless stretch against a murderer’s row of Super Bowl contenders. The deadly schedule was a nonfactor.
4. The Ground Game Was Fixed — Finally
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Aaron Jones waltzed onto the Vikings’ roster and fixed the ailing rushing attack with one swoop to start the season. The production, on the whole, tailed off in Weeks 4 and 5 — probably why games versus the Green Bay Packers and New York Jets became closer than necessary.
Yet, Minnesota’s rushing strategy has worked to set the tone for the 2024 campaign, helping it move out of its 27th ranking per rushing DVOA in 2022 and 2023.
3. Remarkable Roster Depth
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The Vikings crushed the Houston Texans by 27 points in Week 3 without Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, Dallas Turner, and Ivan Pace Jr. It didn’t matter that those men missed the game because of injury.
General manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has carefully constructed and rebuilt the roster since taking the big job in 2022, and suddenly, “next man up” really applies and flourishes for the 2024 team.
2. Sam Darnold’s Reclamation and Then Some
Kirby Lee-Imagn Images.
Darnold ranks second in the NFL in touchdown passes right and ninth per EPA+CPOE, an efficiency metric measuring expected wins added. Minnesota gave him an opportunity to win the QB1 job and excel in the role — and that’s what he did.
Many enthusiastic fans thought Darnold would play “okay” within the purple offense, but he’s vastly exceeding expectations — so much so that he ranks sixth in the MVP race through five games, according to sportsbooks.
1. Utter Defensive Dominance
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Minnesota’s defense ranks first in the NFL per DVOA and EPA/Play through five games. It is a dominant unit that has not faltered. It’s a calling card.
Moreover, the group is injury-proof. When Ivan Pace Jr. missed two games, Kamu Grugier-Hill filled in seamlessly. So did Patrick Jones II and Jihard Ward for Dallas Turner.
Most fans believed Brian Flores’ defense could nibble at Top 10 efficiency, but that undersold the state of play. Through 30% of the season, the Vikings have a “Top 1” defense.