The Minnesota Vikings have an offseason choice in the next few months: re-signing quarterback Sam Darnold or letting it ride with J.J. McCarthy, who the franchise selected 10th overall in last year’s draft.
Vikings QB1 in 2025? There’s a Huge Betting Favorite.
Darnold held down QB1 duties in 2024 — quite admirably — but capitulated in the season’s final two games. His Vikings lost in Week 18 at Ford Field against the Detroit Lions (with homefield advantage at stake) and on the road in the playoffs versus the Los Angeles Rams. Darnold’s Week 1-17 performance terrorized defenses; the Week 18 and postseason efforts empowered them.
Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports.
And with Minnesota’s decision looming, McCarthy, not Darnold, is the overwhelming favorite to lead the Vikings in September. McCarthy has +350 odds to win the starter’s job, meaning a bettor would have to gamble $350 just to win $100 if McCarthy wins the gig.
McCarthy battled Darnold for the QB1 last summer, a competition cut short by a torn meniscus. The rookie mesmerized fans in his first outing, a preseason game at home against the Las Vegas Raiders. A few days later, the team reported the torn meniscus, putting McCarthy firmly on the shelf for the rest of the season. He became the first quarterback in NFL history drafted in the Top 10 to miss his entire first year due to injury.
On Darnold, ESPN recently reported that Minnesota had not made a final call on his future in the Twin Cities. Jeremy Fowler wrote last weekend, “The Vikings have not yet made a firm determination on Sam Darnold’s future with the team. His strong play this season has caused them to pause and take a hard look at their options. Bringing him back feels like a stronger possibility than it was five or six months ago.”
Teams like the Las Vegas Raiders, Seattle Seahawks, Pittsburgh Steelers, and New York Giants could poke around at Darnold’s free agency if Minnesota allows him to leave.
“But the Vikings will have a cap on spending here. Some agents have argued that Darnold shouldn’t take a penny less than Daniel Jones’ four-year, $160 million deal with the Giants from two years ago. Teams have suggested Darnold getting something more in line with Baker Mayfield’s contract (three years, $100 million). In the end, perhaps the transition tag ($35.3 million) makes the most sense,” Fowler added.
Meanwhile, the Vikings have another Darnold-type commodity lined up if he joins another team: Daniel Jones. Minnesota signed Jones late last season when the New York Giants severed ties. Jones, too, is scheduled to hit free agency, but most believe Minnesota would re-sign him on an affordable contract if Darnold skedaddled.
Finally, although national media continues to hint at Darnold’s return, most of the franchise’s ardent fans have decided that McCarthy will likely take the reins in 2025, an opinion that aligns with oddsmakers’ betting lines.
McCarthy turned 22 last week.