Last year, the Minnesota Vikings’ staff fixated on October.
The team had struggled, but the coaches felt they could turn the tide in the run-up to Halloween. Things are different this year because of the Vikings’ 5-0 start, but the staff prioritized November as an enticing bridge to the stretch run.
The Vikings took care of business Sunday night against the Indianapolis Colts. This weekend, they’ll face another AFC South team that has hit some turbulence of late. What should we expect as the Vikings travel to Jacksonville to face the Jaguars? As always, The Athletic’s Alec Lewis and Jon Krawczynski are here for a preview.
What I’m watching
Lewis: Justin Jefferson. Why? Because I don’t think the Jaguars have a cornerback who can cover him. Tyson Campbell has the frame and length to play physically, but the Vikings offensive staff rarely allows that to matter. If you look closely at Minnesota’s formations, receivers are often stacked atop one another to allow for free releases. The other Jaguars cornerbacks are 30-year-old Ronald Darby and rookie Jarrian Jones. Jacksonville will double-team Jefferson, but safeties Darnell Savage and Andre Cisco leave much to be desired, too. It often feels too simplistic to say they should just throw the ball to Jefferson every time. But Sunday? Maybe just throw the ball to Jefferson every time.
Krawczynski: T.J. Hockenson. He had three catches for 27 yards in his season debut against the Colts last weekend. All in all, he seemed to be moving fine after the long recovery from knee surgery. Now that he has a game under his belt, this might be a good week for him to find a rhythm with Sam Darnold. As Alec points out above, Jefferson will go at it down the field. That should open things up for Hockenson underneath and get him closer to the impact player he was before the injury.
Biggest concerns
Lewis: The fact that I don’t have a big concern. Every week in the NFL, there’s at least one game that seems obvious and easy to predict. One team is a huge favorite over another. Then, somehow, the favorite loses. That’s the only thing that worries me this week. The Vikings have the most explosive passing offense in the NFL, and the Jaguars allow the second-highest explosive pass rate. Their offensive line is less than menacing, and Mac Jones might start against a Brian Flores defense built to suffocate the quarterback.
Krawczynski: John Parker Romo. Welcome to the charmed existence of being a Vikings kicker, Mr. Romo. Minnesota brought him in to hold down the fort while super rookie Will Reichard recovers from injury. What could go wrong? It just figures that as soon as the Vikings seemed to have found an ultra-reliable kicker who is nails anywhere inside of 70, he gets hurt. If they do find themselves in a meat grinder of a game, there are going to be some nervous folks every time Romo trots out for a kick.
Most interesting matchup
Lewis: Cam Robinson vs. Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker. Two weeks ago, Robinson was blocking these high-end edge rushers in practice. Now, the former Jags tackle will have to use that experience to his advantage. Hines-Allen is one of the best pass rushers in the NFL. He can wreck a game if you’re not careful. Walker, just 23 and the No. 1 pick in 2022, has started to come on this season. Jaguars linebackers Foyesade Oluokun and Devin Lloyd can both rush the passer. Arik Armstead is no slouch, either, even if he has not had his most menacing season. But this Jacksonville defense does not have much beyond its edge rushers. If Robinson can replicate last weekend’s performance, and if right tackle Brian O’Neill can do what he’s done all season, quarterback Sam Darnold should feast.
Krawczynski: Brian Flores vs. Mac Jones. News hit on Thursday that starting quarterback Trevor Lawrence is unlikely to play because of a shoulder injury. That puts Jones in line to start. Jones was a first-round pick who didn’t pan out in New England, but it’s hard to know if that was his fault or the fault of Bill Belichick giving him Matt Patricia as an offensive coordinator and almost no real talent at the skill positions around him. In he’ll step against the Vikings defense, which got some of its mojo back in a win over Indianapolis last week. Flores will throw the kitchen sink at Jones, coming at him from all angles and using pre-snap chaos to disguise coverages and try to trick the youngster.
Most interesting storyline
Lewis: Can the Vikings go 4-0 in November? Even before the season started, this felt like a surprisingly gettable month. Minnesota beat its first AFC South foe last weekend. Two other AFC South opponents (Jacksonville and Tennessee) follow immediately after, then the scuffling Chicago Bears. Last year, the Vikings went 4-1 in October, turning their season around before Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles. Sweeping the four November games this year would put the Vikings at 9-2 with a stretch run against beatable teams and a chance to go far beyond their preseason expectations. By all measures, the Vikings shouldn’t lose either of these next two games.
Krawczynski: Blake Cashman’s looming return. The linebacker has started to practice on a limited basis after missing the last three games with an injured toe. For much of that stretch, the defense has not looked the same without the veteran who has been so effective against both the run and the pass in his first season in purple. If Cashman can return to form this week or next, the Vikings could be in position to go on a run. It’s a soft spot in the schedule, and getting a leader like Cashman back on the field can be just what this team needs to catapult it toward the playoffs.
How these teams match up from a data standpoint
Here is where each team ranks in the following categories, using explosive play rate for explosiveness, success rate for efficiency and DVOA’s strength of schedule metric:
Predictions
Lewis: Vikings 27, Jaguars 10. I rarely venture outside of a one-possession prediction, but this is one of those times. Jacksonville’s offense is middling. Its defense has been atrocious. EverBank Stadium shouldn’t offer much in the form of home-field advantage. Minnesota has too much firepower and too big a coaching edge. Being this confident makes me uncomfortable.
Krawczynski: Vikings 28, Jaguars 13. Like Alec, I see a convincing Vikings win, especially with Jones in for Lawrence. I don’t think Lawrence is anything special, but he does have more experience than Jones, and that matters against this Vikings defense. I see a defensive touchdown coming on Sunday.