It’s just barely cracked open.
This might be one of the worst seasons I’ve seen from the 49ers. This team was touted to be a Super Bowl contender that would dominate most of the season and easily make the playoffs, but the opposite happened. We got to watch a collapse, a team that should be contenders sitting at a 6-11 record. I don’t think anyone had that on their bingo cards.
Even in a collapse of a season with multiple players getting hurt, I’m here to let you know that there is still hope for this iteration of the 49ers. The window isn’t closed quite yet, but if they don’t get through it soon, it’ll close fast.
Offense
The 2024 49ers offense was not the same unit we have seen in the past. We have been accustomed to an offense where Christian McCaffrey is the entire offense. He will run the ball, catch the ball, and score an unheard amount of Touchdowns. That version of this offense is likely dead with McCaffrey having his most injury-riddled season yet. As much as I would like to see a CMC comeback, it’s likely not in the cards. Will he still be an NFL starting running back? 100%, he just won’t have the same level of quickness and ability to break tackles. That might sting a bit, but there’s still a positive here. Purdy can utilize his arm talent when he has his entire receiving core back.
PFF has two stats that I love for QBs, Big Time Throws (BTT) and Turnover Worthy Plays (TWP). PFF defines BTT as a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window, while a TWP is a play where either a throw has a high chance to be intercepted or a play where the ball isn’t being held well enough and causes a fumble. These stats incapsalate crucial plays in the game. In 2023, Brock Purdy had 32 Big Time Throws and 23 Turnover Worthy Plays. Compared to other QB’s, his ratio isn’t the best, but it certainly was enough for them to make it to the Super Bowl. In 2024, Purdy fell off a cliff. He had 15 Big Time Throws and 17 Turnover Worthy Plays. That is simply abysmal, but it wasn’t terrible from Weeks 1-6.
When Brandon Aiyuk was on the field, Purdy’s BTT’s went up massively. In Weeks 1-6, Brock had 10 Big Time Throws and 4 Turnover Worthy Plays. After Aiyuk went out for the rest of the season, Purdy had 5 Big Time Throws and 13 Turnover Worthy Plays in 9 games. That is a dramatic falloff, and the only realistic reason I can see as to why this happened, is the lack of a big-time receiving threat aka Brandon AIyuk. Assuming he comes back fully healthy, Brock’s numbers will shoot up. In addition, if teams have to start to worry about Aiyuk, it gives the other receivers great opportunities to get open and create big plays.
The offensive line might be an issue for some fans, I’d beg to differ. This unit showed up last season, according to PFF’s Premium Stats the Offensive Line was ranked 12th in Pass Blocking and 2nd in Run Blocking. Even with that 12th ranking, they were only 3.8 points away from being 4th in the league. It looks even better considering there were only 3 teams in the Top 10 for both categories, the Broncos, Eagles, and Falcons. They aren’t a Top 5 Unit, but they’re defenitely above average. With a draft pick or two going to Offensive Line in the upcoming draft, this unit can easily become Top 10 in 2025.
Defense
This is where the big questions for 2025 are. After firing yet another defensive coordinator, the Niners need to find the guy to get this unit back on track, and fast. According to PFF, this Niners defense was not up to par with their typical standards. PFF has them ranked as the 15th best in the league according to their defensive grade. This seems high for a defense that struggled as much as they did, they were carried by their coverage grade. The Niners ranked 3rd in Coverage Grade, meanwhile, they ranked 28th in Run Defense, 17th in Tackling Grade, and 18th in Pass Rush Grade. That is not the 49ers that fans have been accustomed to.
Even with all of that, there is still hope. Everyone knows that the whole in the defense this season was the defensive line. With a draft pick being spent on a presence for the D-Line, and a free agency signing this unit is bound to blossom. A guy like Derrick Harmon from Oregon could solve the issues, and adding a Khalil Mack or Josh Sweat will only help with production and enhancing the young guys abilities. All in all, it’s a fair concern to have heading into next season, but it’s a concern that can easily be solved.
The linebacking core is very top heavy. Assuming the Niners resign Dre Greenlaw, him and Fred Warner are the best LB combo in the league by miles. After that, there isn’t much else. Dee Winters could be something, but otherwise I don’t see much. Hopefully, the Niners add an aging veteran with more desire to play than someone like, oh I don’t know maybe De’Vondre Campbell. Then the 49ers don’t need to worry about sending a limping LB to play. Otherwise, there’s not much more this LB Core can do.
The coverage unit was amazing this season. Deommodore Lenoir is the biggest Pro Bowl snub given his amazing performance this season. Renardo Green and Isaac Yiadom weren’t amazing, but they were good enough to be getting heavy snaps this season. Charvarious Ward is likely out from the 49ers given everything he went through this year, which props to him for even being willing to say that outright, that takes guts and courage. But back to the point, this is a fear for me heading into next season. Without having a Ward on this team, a guy to lockdown opposing teams X or Primary Receiver, this unit is bound to get worse. A big free agency move for a Rasul Douglas can easily solve that issue. Hopefully, the Niners are willing to spend some of the big bucks to get him or Ward stays around for a bit more time.
And now to the big question, who will be the DC next year? There have been plenty of names thrown around, the big three being Robert Saleh, Deshea Townsend from Detroit, Dennis Allen and Brandon Staley. If the Niners can get their hands on Saleh they should do whatever they can to get him. He was the key piece for their defense in their Super Bowl run in 2019 and changed the way they played. The issue in getting Saleh is teams desire to get him around the league. He has already had a meeting with the Jaguars for their head coaching role, along with an upcoming interview with the Raiders. Now the Cowboys have shown interest and he will likely interview for that as well. If he has all these different HC opportunities it feels unlikely he will go with the Niners.
In comes Deshea Townsend. Townsend has been the Defensive passing game coordinator and defensive backs coach for the Lions. I’ll be frank here, I don’t know much about Townsend’s abilities as a defensive play-caller. What I do know, is no matter what he does it will be better than Brandon Staley. If Staley somehow gets the job, I’d nearly guarantee that this unit crumbles.
The point here is simple, don’t lose hope Niners fans. This team is loaded with talent everywhere. Just because this season was a disaster doesn’t mean 2025 will be too. This team has every chance to be a contender in 2025, and as long as things go to plan, a playoff run is easily achievable.