Minnesota Vikings fans may not be happy about how the 2024 campaign ended, but they can’t deny the team’s 14-3 regular season smashed expectations. They also can’t deny quarterback Sam Darnold played a major part in that success.
However, the 27-year-old struggled in the two most important games of the season for Minnesota. And as the seven-year veteran hits free agency off easily his best NFL season, the Vikings face a conundrum.
They can bank on Darnold’s success a year ago being repeatable and re-sign him, or they can revert to the plan from a year ago and hand the offense over to J.J. McCarthy, who was supposed to be Minnesota’s future under center after being drafted 10th overall in 2024.
Of course, McCarthy tore his meniscus and missed his entire rookie season. And that’s the thing, the Michigan product also has his pros and cons.
Is Darnold the quarterback we saw a year ago or the draft bust who was run out of New York? Is McCarthy a future star or another young quarterback a team will come to regret drafting?
It’s quite the quandary and one we’re going to dig into here, with the case for and against both options and a verdict on the Vikings’ best course of action.
Sam Darnold Pros
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Most of the 2024 Season
The biggest “pro” for bringing back Sam Darnold is easy: For most of the 2024 season, he was an excellent quarterback.
Expectations for the Vikings last year weren’t that high even before J.J. McCarthy tore his meniscus. Once that happened, most fans likely would have been happy to see Minnesota finish above .500. Instead, the team won 14 games, made the playoffs and entered Week 18 with a shot at the NFC North title and the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
For the season, Darnold was fifth in the NFL with 4,319 passing yards. His 35 touchdown passes were also fifth. He was sixth in yards per attempt and seventh in air yards per attempt. His passer rating of 102.5 was sixth in the league. He was also fifth in touchdown percentage and had as many game-winning drives (five) as any quarterback in the NFC.
No Vikings quarterback has won more games in a regular season. No quarterback ever has won more in his first year with a new team.
Yes, Darnold’s last two starts were shaky, but those games don’t erase the 16 that came before them. As a whole, there’s no way anyone can say he didn’t wildly exceed expectations last year.
Experience and Respect
Given where the Vikings drafted him, the team certainly appears to have confidence in J.J. McCarthy’s talent. But he’s still an unknown commodity. His next NFL pass in a game that counts will be his first.
Darnold, on the other hand, has now made 73 starts in the NFL. And given how bad some of the Jets teams he was on were, his career numbers aren’t that bad. He’s three games under .500 as a starter with 30 more touchdowns than interceptions.
He also certainly appears to have the respect of his teammates.
That tweet came after a Week 17 win over the rival Packers, when Minnesota head coach Kevin O’Connell told reporters:
“I’m just so proud of him. There’s so many things that lead into moments like this for Sam, since he became a Minnesota Viking, just to see how he’s ultimately been able to maximize everything about his opportunity. Our football team loves him for it and I’ve had an absolute blast coaching him.”
Starting quarterbacks need to command respect, and Darnold certainly appears to have it in Minnesota.
Sam Darnold Cons
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Was It a Fluke?
Darnold was excellent for much of last season. But just as we can’t dismiss the good because of Minnesota’s rocky finish to the season, we also can’t ignore that in the Week 18 loss to Detroit and the Wild Card Round loss to the Los Angeles Rams, he did not play well.
The USC product was the first to admit it after getting bounced from the postseason.
“They were just better than us today,” Darnold told reporters. “I left a couple throws out there that I could be better on, especially early in the game. … Just too many mistakes.”
Over the final two games of the season, he completed just 53.1 percent of his passes for 411 yards and a touchdown with an interception and lost fumble. His passer rating for those high-stakes contests was a miserable 66.4.
It raises doubts. Doubts about whether Darnold will start “seeing ghosts” when the pressure is at its highest. Doubts as to whether the 2024 version of him was the “real” Sam Darnold.
Money, Money, Money
Those doubts can’t be ignored or dismissed, either, especially not when bringing Darnold back is going to be a lot more expensive.
And when I say a lot, I mean exponentially.
O’Connell told reporters that Darnold has earned his shot at a big payday:
“Look, you guys know how I feel about Sam. He is a guy that we identified last year as somebody who could come in and be successful. And really no matter where he was at before he arrived in his quarterback journey, it was about maximizing our time together. And I think we did that, and I think it was a very special year for Sam. And what that earned him is, everybody in our league now thinks he’s a bona fide legitimate starting quarterback and can win a lot of football games. He won 14 of them [in 2024]. So, he’s earned the right to be a free agent, but we will continue to have ongoing dialogue and discussions with him and his representation.”
If Darnold hits the open market, he’ll be the best free-agent quarterback on the market. Spotrac estimates he will receive a four-year deal averaging $40 million a season.
That’s a big commitment after one good year, especially compared to McCarthy’s 2025 cap hit of about $5 million.
J.J. McCarthy Pros
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The Talent
Just after the Vikings drafted J.J. McCarthy with the 10th overall pick last year, O’Connell talked to the media about what they saw that made them pull the trigger on him:
“You really go back through and center your focus on those weighty downs. You know, those third downs where you see him in third-and-[long], at a pretty strong clip, move the football team and generate new downs and get them down in the red zone and make some big time throws to put the ball in the end zone. In big, big moments in games when they needed him to find a way, other ways, just to make a throw, other ways to extend a play, he made a lot of those plays.”
Fast-forward to recently, and O’Connell sounded like a coach completely confident in handing the reins of the Vikings offense back to McCarthy.
“I believe Sam has kind of played himself into being kind of the marquee free-agent quarterback available,” O’Connell told reporters. “I do believe that his teammates and coaches and our front office and myself, we would love to have Sam back in Minnesota. But at the same time, we do feel very confident in J.J. McCarthy. He’s healthy. We drafted him 10th overall for a reason in what was, in my opinion, a historically good quarterback draft last year.”
Two years ago, McCarthy completed 72 percent of his passes, threw over five times as many touchdowns as interceptions and led the Wolverines to a national championship.
From all indications, he can play.
The Rookie Contract
Per Spotrac, the Vikings are currently in good shape relative to the salary cap, with over $58 million in wiggle room.
But the team also has a number of in-house free agents to contend with. Byron Murphy was arguably Minnesota’s best cornerback this past season. Cam Robinson started 10 games at left tackle and joins guard Dalton Risner, tackle David Quessenberry and center Dan Feeney in line for new deals. Running back Aaron Jones. Safety Camryn Bynum. The list goes on and on.
Never mind outside free agents, the Vikings need to address a secondary that was a glaring weak spot for them.
There’s a reason why NFL teams want so badly to hit on a young quarterback: Signal-callers on rookie deals completely change how a franchise can build the roster around them.
The Washington Commanders could be huge players in free agency in 2025 because they have at least two more years of Jayden Daniels at a discount before they have to consider his second contract.
McCarthy offers the Vikings similar flexibility.
J.J. McCarthy Cons
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He’s Unproven
Last summer, McCarthy said all the right things while speaking to reporters about earning the starting job in the Twin Cities:
“Being the competitor that I am, of course (I want to play). But this is such a blessing for me, like I grew up watching Sam Darnold my entire life. And being able to just sit there and watch him, watch Nick (Mullens), watch (Jarren Hall) and it’s not what they say to me. It’s what they do and just being a sponge. Just observing them and eventually, hopefully, one day surpassing them, but right now, you know, they’re just phenomenal human beings that are sharing their wisdom with me. And, you know, I just can’t thank them enough for that and I can’t wait for training camp.”
As camp progressed, McCarthy earned more and more first-team reps. Had he not gotten hurt, he probably would have started the opening game of the campaign.
And that would have been his first game in the NFL.
McCarthy was wildly efficient in Ann Arbor. But that was in a run-first offense with an elite defense. In his scouting report for McCarthy, Bleacher Report’s Derrik Klassen questioned his ability to process defenses and progress through his reads.
“McCarthy needs more work as a processor,” he said. “He did fairly well with the pre-snap indicators Michigan’s offense gave him, but when asked to progress and throw later in the down, McCarthy is very inconsistent both in terms of decision-making and accuracy.”
The Vikings may not share those concerns. But it doesn’t change the fact that he’s yet to throw a pass in a game that matters.
The Injury
McCarthy didn’t just tear his meniscus. As ESPN’s Kevin Seifert wrote, a second procedure was performed on the youngster’s knee in November.
“As his rehab has picked up, we noticed a little swelling in there and just with the time that we do have … we just wanted to make sure there was no cause for concern,” Vikings coach O’Connell said. “All reports were very positive and he’s on the original timetable and in good shape.”
As mentioned, the Vikings have already said McCarthy is “healthy” and should be a full-go for the offseason program. But in addition to having never taken the field to face an NFL defense running an actual game plan to stop him, he is coming off a major injury.
That’s a considerable risk. And there’s no sugarcoating that.
What the Vikings Should Do
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So, what should Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah do? What’s the right course of action in 2025 and beyond? Stick with Darnold? Roll the dice on McCarthy?
The answer is both.
Minnesota’s circumstances have to be considered. When the team drafted McCarthy, expectations for 2024 were modest. The Vikings were picked to finish third in the NFC North by more pundits than not. No one thought the team would win 14 games.
They are also in decent shape relative to the salary cap. Bringing Darnold back isn’t cost prohibitive, especially with a few restructures to create more space. If the Vikings believe they have a window for a run at Santa Clara next year, the team should act like it.
That means slapping the franchise tag on Darnold.
The tag for quarterbacks is believed to be in the $40 million range in 2025—about the same as Darnold’s projected salary. The tag also gives Minnesota all the leverage in trade talks. If a team comes to Adofo-Mensah with a “Godfather” offer, he can make a deal. If a team signs Darnold to a ridiculous offer sheet, the Vikings can pass and get two first-round picks.
The latter isn’t happening. But just saying.
Best case? The team gets the Darnold from the first 14 games of 2024 and McCarthy gets a healthy season to learn and develop. Come 2026, the Vikings can let Darnold walk and hand the offense to McCarthy, or hand Darnold a bag and try to trade McCarthy,
The youngster’s promise aside, starting McCarthy is fixing something that isn’t broken. And thanks to the tag, the Vikings don’t need to let Darnold near the open market.
As weird as it sounds to say “don’t let Sam Darnold hit the market,” that’s where we are now.
Football can be a weird game sometimes.