Christian McCaffrey might be the worst No. 1 fantasy football pick. And not just because of 2024

When fantasy managers score the No. 1 draft pick, the season feels ripe with opportunity. Any one of several supremely talented players can serve as your champion, leading your roster to undreamt heights in a quest for fantasy glory. Unless, that is, you draft Christian McCaffrey when he’s the consensus top pick — those managers will end up cowering in a fetal position at the base of a desolate crater McCaffrey has dug for them.

The 2024 fantasy season was fraught with disappointment for those who selected McCaffrey, easily the consensus No. 1 after a monster 2023 season. That year, McCaffrey flaunted a resume of 1,459 rushing yards, 564 more receiving and 21 total touchdowns during the regular season. But in 2024, McCaffrey replaced that sweet, sweet ambrosia with unicorn blood.

As the 2024 fantasy drafts neared, the San Francisco 49ers revealed CMC was battling a calf injury. Initially, many reports suggested he would be ready to hit the field when the season began, and his Week 1 inactive status came as a surprise. It wasn’t until Week 10 — 10! — that he finally made his return and a disheartening one at that. McCaffrey finished with only 39 yards on the ground (3.0 yards per carry) and 68 yards receiving.

He would go on to play in only four games, finishing with 202 rushing yards, 146 receiving yards, a fumble and no touchdowns; he averaged only 11.95 points per game in points-per-reception (PPR) formats for an anemic season total of 32.8. Saquon Barkley took the traditional RB crown this year with 322.3 non-PPR points, while Jamhyr Gibbs’ 362.9 points made him the top back in PPR scoring. Those totals are more or less in line with what managers expect from a running back chosen with the No. 1 overall selection. 32.8 points? Less so.

Since 2000, the top-drafted RB has averaged 230.75 points per season, meaning McCaffrey’s 2024 season fell a debilitating 197.95 points short of expectations.

This raises a critical question: Is CMC the worst No. 1 pick in the past 25 years? Considering single-season efforts, the answer is technically no. However, when considering McCaffrey’s entire career, one might convincingly argue he has cemented himself as one of the most disappointing top picks in fantasy history.

McCaffrey ended 2024 as the second-worst selection for returned value since 2000, but the leader in the disappointing season department is then-Arizona Cardinals running back David Johnson in 2017. Coming off a career year when he was the No. 1 overall fantasy scorer, Johnson suffered a season-ending injury in the first game of 2017, negatively impacting anyone who drafted him in fantasy football but, more significantly, his career.

Looking at the broader picture, the uniquely skilled McCaffrey has been the consensus No. 1 pick four times since 2000, and he has only produced at a top-12 (or RB1) level once, in 2023. His other three performances following consensus first-overall selections weren’t just bad, they rank in the Top 5 worst performances by a consensus No. 1 pick in the past 25 years.

Look back at the historical performance of consensus No. 1 picks since 2000 using nonPPR ADP data from My Fantasy League — which provides the consensus top picks each year — projected points from the Fantasy Football Index magazine and final scores from Stathead, and the picture is decidedly bleak for CMC.

Remarkably, there have been only six instances when a No. 1 pick failed to finish in the top 12 positionally. Three of those six were McCaffrey letdowns, and one was Johnson’s aforementioned 2017 season. In 2022, Jonathan Taylor played 11 games and finished as RB36 with 118.4 points. In 2002, Marshall Faulk finished as RB15 in 14 games but still had 10 touchdowns, approached 1,000 rushing yards (953) and had 537 receiving yards. (Also remarkable: In 2001, Faulk played only 14 games but still finished as the No. 1 overall fantasy player in PPR and non-PPR formats.)

Faulk’s 2002 season is more in line with what a “bad” season looks like from a No. 1 fantasy selection historically. He played in 14 games, remained relatively valuable and had decent production overall. The problem with the No. 1 pick is that managers typically won’t select again until pick 24 in a 12-team league using a snake-draft format. With so many talented players coming off the board before the No. 1 team makes their second selection, that No. 1 player needs to soar. Instead, when McCaffrey has been the consensus No. 1 pick, he’s been an albatross with a tractor-trailer hitched to its tailfeathers.

In years when McCaffrey was not the consensus No. 1, but still in the Top 5 draft picks based on ADP, he performed much better. In 2019, he finished as RB1, and in 2022, he finished as RB2.

Each of McCaffrey’s underwhelming fantasy seasons can be attributed to injuries, and historically, managers tend to write off injuries as a red flag. But in the case of McCaffrey — and especially after that epic 2023 campaign — the upside appeal was too immense to ignore. But at what point do fantasy managers stop selecting McCaffrey as No. 1 overall, especially as he ages?

The peril is plain: Christian McCaffrey has ruined — wrecked, shattered, insert your own depressing adjective — more seasons than any other consensus No. 1 fantasy pick since 2000. While no one will have him as the consensus top pick next year, he wouldn’t have returned second-, third- or fourth-round value this year. So, what should his ADP be in 2025? I’d probably be comfortable taking him in the RB10 area, making his bad-luck streak as the No. 1 pick a non-factor and reducing the roster’s dependency on his success. But even then, managers will need him to stay healthy. So, here’s to his health.

Jess Bryant is a Senior Editor at The Athletic, covering fantasy sports and betting. Before joining The Athletic, she was a writer, researcher, and editor for Matthew Berry’s Fantasy Life, and contributed to the collaborative journalism efforts of Resolve Philly. Jess holds an MFA from Eastern Washington University. Follow Jess on Twitter @JessLBry