The last time the San Francisco 49ers played the Bills, on Dec. 7, 2020, they were an injury-riddled 5-6 team coming off a Super Bowl loss and facing AFC-East-leading Buffalo in prime time in less-than-ideal conditions.
On Sunday night, they will meet the Bills again, this time near the shores of Lake Erie, and the similarities are eerie: They are an injury riddled 5-6 team coming off a Super Bowl loss and facing AFC-East-leading Buffalo in prime time in potentially less-than-ideal conditions.
The 49ers sincerely hope the parallels don’t extend to the game. Four years ago, QB Josh Allen had four touchdown passes and the Bills beat the 49ers, 34-24 on “Monday Night Football” in Glendale, Ariz., in the 49ers’ first home game away from Santa Clara after they were forced to relocate during the pandemic.
This time, the 49ers will face Allen — yes, again in the first week of December — when the Bills’ home could feature unfavorable conditions for a California team: The area around Highmark Stadium is under a winter-storm watch, with heavy snow possible, and the wind-chill temperature is expected to be around 20 degrees.
Head coach Kyle Shanahan reflected Friday on how Allen added to the 49ers’ misery by completing 32 of 40 passes for 375 yards in that 2020 game.
I remember “not loving the situation we were in,” Shanahan said. “We were living in Arizona, living in a hotel. It wasn’t a fun time in any of our lives there. We were in a hotel, but we weren’t allowed to go outside of our room. … That wasn’t a very fun game. Josh had a hell of a game, they played some good defense and it was a tough loss.”
Unfortunately for the 49ers, the stage appears set for another tough time against the Bills (9-2), who haven’t played since Nov. 17 and are 7-0 when coming off a bye under head coach Sean McDermott. Meanwhile, the 49ers are trekking across the country after last week’s 38-10 loss at Green Bay and will play without five starters: All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams, All-Pro pass rusher Trent Williams, cornerback Deommodore Lenoir, left guard Aaron Banks and defensive tackle Jordan Elliott.
That comes after earlier losses of All-Pro wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk and Pro Bowl defensive tackle Javon Hargrave to season-ending injuries.
Pro Bowl quarterback Brock Purdy (shoulder) is expected to return from a one-game absence, but attrition is a major reason the 49ers are seven-point underdogs. They haven’t been bigger underdogs since the Saints were favored by 9.5 points in a 27-13 win over the 49ers on Nov. 15, 2020.
“Yes, we’re missing some guys out there, which is tough,” tight end George Kittle said. “You never want to do that. But I think we still have a lot of really talented players on this football team. … We have plenty of guys that go out and make game-changing plays for us.”
Another problem: The All-Pros that Kittle namechecked — running back Christian McCaffrey, wide receiver Deebo Samuel, and linebacker Fred Warner — aren’t making game-changing plays.
McCaffrey has averaged 3.5 yards a carry and hasn’t scored a touchdown in his first three games since his coming off injured reserve. Samuel has 44 total yards in the past two games, his fewest since his rookie season in 2019. And Warner revealed Wednesday that he has played the past seven games with a fracture in his right ankle, which helps explain why he has cooled after a torrid season-opening start.
Meanwhile, Allen, 28, is an NFL MVP candidate who might be at the peak of his powers. He’s on pace to throw for 3,930 yards, rush for 488 and account for 36 total touchdowns. This season, however, he has thrown just five interceptions in 339 attempts and his interception percentage (1.5) ranks 11th in the NFL. From 2018-2023, Allen’s interception percentage (2.5) ranked 29th among 39 QBs with at least 1,000 attempts.
“He’s at the top right now,” Warner said. “The things he’s doing with the football, through the air and with his legs. He’s taking care of the football. That’s been the thing he’s improved on most is making good decisions and taking what the defense gives him. It’s going to take all 11” defenders to stop him.
That loss to the Bills in 2020 effectively extinguished the 49ers’ playoff hopes, placing them three games behind the Seahawks, the eventual NFC West champions, with four games remaining. A defeat on Sunday wouldn’t have the same impact. In a worst-case scenario, the 49ers would be two games out of first place in the NFC West with five games left.
“I think the vibe’s probably a lot lower outside of this locker room than it is in,” McCaffrey said. “Our team is hungry. We still have everything in front of us. And we’re ready to go.”