Ian Hartitz breaks through with the 2025 team needs for the Buffalo Bills heading into the NFL Draft and Combine.
Josh Allen won the MVP. The Bills won their fifth straight AFC East title. They took down the Chiefs in the regular season before knocking off the Broncos and Ravens in the playoffs. Carrying the league’s fifth-longest drought without a championship crown, it sure seemed like this season could be different for Bills Mafia.
Sadly, the year instead ended in a loss to Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid’s evil empire for the fourth time in the last five seasons. Whether you want to blame the refs, a defense that couldn’t buy a stop down the stretch, or Dalton Kincaid‘s butterfingers: Sean McDermott’s squad sadly once again ended its season in tears of sadness instead of joy.
Today we’ll recap some of the good and bad of 2024 before getting into potential offseason injuries to monitor as well as team needs ahead of the 2025 offseason.
As always: It’s a great day to be great.
BUFFALO BILLS 2024 RECAP
Record: 13-4 (10.5 preseason win total) Points per game: 30.9 (2nd) EPA per dropback: +0.298 (2nd) EPA per rush: +0.029 (3rd) Points per game allowed: 21.6 (11th) Leading passer: Josh Allen (3,731 pass yards, 28 TD, 6 INT) Leading rusher: James Cook (207 carries, 1,009 yards, 16 TD) Leading receiver: Khalil Shakir (76 receptions, 821 yards, 4 TD)
What Are The Biggest Needs of the Bills Ahead Of 2025?
Draft picks: 1.30, 2.56, 2.62, 4.108, 4.131, 5.171, 5.175, 6.179, 6.206, 6.208 Effective cap space: -$13.2 million (30th) 2025 spending: 15th on offense, 6th on defense Key free agents: RB Ty Johnson, WR Amari Cooper, WR Mack Hollins, FB Reggie Gilliam, EDGE Dawuane Smoot, DL Austin Johnson, CB Rasul Douglas, S Damar Hamlin
Team Need No. 1: Wide Receiver
Both Amari Cooper and Mack Hollins are hitting free agency, leaving Buffalo as one of just 12 teams with under $20 million devoted to the position ahead of 2025.
Look, Khalil Shakir is right at home as a shifty slot maven, and Keon Coleman was impressing with his opportunities before a midseason wrist injury largely doomed him the rest of the way. Still, it was clear during the team’s latest playoff loss to Kansas City that a true difference-maker was needed on the outside—nothing about this passing game was overly easy all season long. Overall, the Bills ranked just 27th in average Open Score among its qualified WRs and TEs; nobody was consistently creating separation for Allen.
While the team’s lack of cap space might make a splash in free agency tough, going back to the well in the draft would make a lot of sense. Consider: Coleman was the team’s first WR drafted on Day 1 or 2 since 2017. This is one of just seven franchises to devote only *one* top-100 draft pick to their WR room since 2020.
Team Need No. 2: Secondary
Longtime stud S Micah Hyde retired, while starting CB Rasul Douglas and S Damar Hamlin are both set to hit free agency, leaving the Bills with the league’s 10th fewest 2025 dollars devoted to their cornerback and safety rooms.
As good as this group was against the run last season (5th in EPA allowed per rush), their performance against the pass left quite a bit to be desired.
Bills team defense ranks against the pass:
EPA per dropback: +0.11 (26th) Yards per attempt: 7.1 (18th) Passer rating: 93.3 (15th)
It’d make sense if 2024 second-round S Cole Bishop takes on a bigger role in Year 2; either way, additional help will be needed to help plug arguably the biggest hole in this roster ahead of 2025.
Team Need No. 3: EDGE/Pass Rush
The Bills had three EDGE defenders rank inside PFF’s top-100 players at the position in pass rush grade last season:
Von Miller: 11th, but turns 36 in March Greg Rousseau: 13th, but a long-term decision needs to be made sooner rather than later after the Bills exercised the former first-rounder’s fifth-year option Dawuane Smoot: 83rd, but entering free agency
Throw in the reality that this defense ranked just 23rd in pressure rate and sack rate alike, and it’s clear more reinforcements are needed at the line of scrimmage to help boost this squad’s aforementioned underwhelming pass defense.
Biggest surprise: RB James Cook
James Dalvin Cook (his brother’s middle name is James; wild, I know) racked up 1,567 total yards and scored 6 TDs in 2023; it’s not like the world was unaware of his ability entering the 2024 season.
And yet, I doubt even Cook’s biggest truthers were ready for the man to score a whopping 21 TDs across 19 total games. The increase in scoring really was amazing:
Cook converted just 2.3% of his touches into scores during the 2022-23 seasons–41st among 53 qualified backs. But in 2024? Cook’s 7.5% TD rate was easily first among 51 qualified backs. The latter figure is good for the seventh-highest mark among any RB with 200-plus touches in a season since 2000.
The spike in TDs helped Cook work as the RB11 in PPR points per game and now has the rising fourth-year back thinking about a raise. And why not? The receiving usage at hand still feels a bit untapped, and Cook is fresh off an RB8 finish in rush yards over expected per carry.
Biggest disappointment: TE Dalton Kincaid
The Bills seemingly used the 25th selection of the 2023 NFL Draft on Kincaid to get Josh Allen his version of Travis Kelce. While Kincaid’s rookie campaign didn’t exactly produce consistent fireworks, his 73-673-2 receiving line was still a solid starting point. And the team’s lack of a true No. 1 WR in the aftermath of the Stefon Diggs trade had many believing it was the second-year TE’s time to lead the passing game.
Or not. Midseason shoulder and knee injuries didn’t help matters, but things weren’t going all that great even before health became an issue. Throw in forgettable 3-47-0, 1-11-0, and 2-13-0 receiving lines in the playoffs, and it’s awfully difficult to be overly high on the 25-year-old talent ahead of 2025.
Now, Kincaid’s underlying efficiency numbers weren’t terrible—he actually demanded targets at an elite rate—but even more of the same won’t be enough to save the day in future seasons if he can’t even fully displace Dawson Knox from the starting lineup.
Kincaid among 31 TEs with 50-plus targets in 2024:
PFF receiving grade: 76.0 (8th) Yards per route run: 1.62 (9th) Targets per route run: 27.2% (2nd) Passer rating when targeted: 89.4 (23rd)
To be fair, Kincaid’s uncatchable target rate reflects the reality that it wasn’t all his fault. Perhaps comeback szn will be in the air in 2025.
Key injuries
The Bills largely enjoyed great injury luck throughout 2024 and thus aren’t believed to be dealing with any ongoing fantasy-relevant injuries ahead of 2025. Hell yeah!