The Minnesota Vikings know it comes down to this. When they travel to take on the Detroit Lions, the NFC North title will be on the line as will home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs. It’s the first NFL regular season game featuring two teams with at least 14 wins and has the spotlight of “Sunday Night Football.”
In other words, Sunday is a big game. But the Vikings have to play their game to come out on top. While the Lions are coming in with a pedal-to-the-floor mentality, Kevin O’Connell has taken an even-keeled approach that reminds some fans of the legendary Bud Grant.
It’s a game that could drastically change the Vikings’ chances to win the Super Bowl and here are three bold predictions for what could be Minnesota’s biggest regular season game in the history of the franchise.
Minnesota Vikings predictions for Week 18 vs. Detroit Lions
1. Vikings will win the turnover battle
When it comes to the biggest key of the game, the Vikings will need to win the turnover battle. The Vikings are 25-1 when they win the turnover battle under Kevin O’Connell although their one loss came in an Oct. 24 game against the Los Angeles Rams.
The Vikings and Lions each turned the ball over once during the previous meeting at U.S. Bank Stadium – a 31-29 win for Detroit on Oct. 20 –but Aaron Glenn’s defense has done a great job forcing turnovers, ranking seventh with 25 turnovers and a 14.1 turnover percentage.
But the biggest advantage that the Lions have is they don’t give the ball away. Their 13 giveaways are tied with the Rams for the fourth-fewest and their 7.6 percent turnover rank is the sixth-lowest in the NFL this season.
It’s a battle that’s worth monitoring and could give the Vikings a big advantage in Detroit.
2. Sam Darnold will throw at least three more touchdown passes
Few quarterbacks have been playing better than Darnold over the past two months. The Vikings are entering Sunday’s game riding a seven-game winning streak and Darnold has been in the middle of it, throwing for nearly 300 yards per game with 18 touchdowns and two interceptions.
Part of Darnold’s success stems from the decision to replace Ed Ingram with Dalton Risner at right guard. But the other part of it is what Detroit is doing on defense. The Athletic’s Alec Lewis noted that the Lions have one of the highest blitz rates in the NFL over the past four weeks and ESPN’s Matt Bowen wrote that Detroit plays the third-highest rate of man coverage at 55.2 percent this season.
Darnold has a league-high 130.8 passer rating against the blitz this season, according to PFF and Bowen charted Darnold completing 11-of-15 passes against man coverage during their loss in Week 7. With Darnold hitting a new gear, it should bode well for his Week 18 success.
3. Jordan Addison will have a game-high in receiving yards
There are so many players on both offenses that could have a big game. Jared Goff and Darnold are playing like franchise quarterbacks.
Justin Jefferson and Amon-Ra St. Brown have both had big games in this rivalry. Jahmyr Gibbs and Aaron Jones could have big days on the ground, and the tight end battle between T.J. Hockenson and Sam LaPorta could also be intriguing.
But if there’s one player that could be the difference in Sunday’s game, it could be Jordan Addison.
Addison played in the Week 7 loss to Detroit but he was shaking off the effects of a lingering ankle injury. When the Vikings lost to the Rams four days later, he posted “Free 3” on his Instagram account.
The term is something Addison has used throughout his football career, but whether it had double meanings or not, his role in the offense has increased since the post, with 48 catches, 644 yards, and eight touchdowns in his last nine games.
Averaging nearly a touchdown per game is a good thing for a receiver. Doing it entering a matchup with a secondary that has allowed the second-most catches (237) and most yards (3,040) to receivers is even better.
The Lions have been able to keep opposing receivers out of the end zone with 13 touchdowns this season but they haven’t faced a team with two No. 1 caliber threats. Jefferson is likely to have a big game but it could be Addison who makes the play that gives the Vikings home-field advantage.
Prediction: Vikings win 31-28