When Abdul Carter racked up 12 sacks and led Penn State to a 13-3 record, he wasn’t just an edge rusher—he was the kind of defensive force every Patriots fan dreams of. With the No. 4 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, New England had a golden opportunity to grab Carter, an explosive athlete capable of reshaping the defense under head coach Mike Vrabel. But what if history repeats itself? Remember Lamar Jackson in 2018—passed on by the Patriots, only to become an MVP elsewhere. Could Carter be the next big regret if the Giants or Browns swoop in ahead of them, or worse, if New England chooses a different path entirely?
Nightmare Scenario: Patriots Without Carter
Picture this: Draft day 2025. The fourth overall pick arrives, and the Patriots don’t call Abdul Carter’s name. There are two ways this nightmare unfolds—both equally chilling for New England fans.
Scenario one: Carter is drafted earlier.
Recent draft buzz suggests the New York Giants, picking third, are hungry for an edge rusher—especially with Kayvon Thibodeaux yet to fully live up to expectations. A cryptic social media post by Carter hinted at his interest in the Big Apple, fueling speculation the Giants could make a move. The Cleveland Browns (picking second) are also a threat, as their defense leans heavily on Myles Garrett. If Carter is snatched away, Patriots fans may once again feel the familiar sting of watching a future superstar slip through their fingers—just like they did with Aaron Donald or J.J. Watt.
Scenario two: The Patriots make the wrong call.
New England’s offense remains a work in progress—their offensive line ranked 25th out of 32 in QB protection (per Pro Football Focus). That might tempt the team to draft a tackle like LSU’s Will Campbell or a wideout like Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan. But can a lineman change the game like Carter, a disruptive force who could chase down Josh Allen or Tua Tagovailoa in crucial matchups? The fanbase is split: prioritize protecting rookie QB Drake Maye, or restore the team’s defensive DNA?
Draft History: A Cautionary Tale for the Patriots
If the Patriots pass on Carter, it wouldn’t be the first time they’ve miscalculated on draft night. Their recent history is littered with decisions that still sting.
Flashback to 2018—New England had a shot at Lamar Jackson at pick No. 31. Instead, they went with running back Sony Michel. Jackson fell to 32 and was scooped up by the Ravens. The result? Jackson became an NFL MVP; Michel is now a forgotten name. The parallels to Carter are hard to miss: both dynamic talents with slight red flags—Jackson had questions about his passing; Carter had a past leg injury (since recovered). If the Patriots don’t trust Carter’s upside, it could cost them dearly—again.
Consider 2019, when the Patriots drafted receiver N’Keal Harry at No. 32 over future All-Pros like A.J. Brown and Deebo Samuel. Harry flamed out, while Brown and Samuel thrived. The lesson? New England often plays it too safe—opting for “solid” over “spectacular.” If they overlook Carter in favor of a less dynamic player, history could repeat itself painfully.
Long-Term Fallout: Carter Elsewhere, Patriots Left Behind
Missing out on Carter could ripple far beyond the 2025 season—it could shape the Patriots’ next decade.
A stagnant defense.
New England desperately needs an edge rusher to counter mobile quarterbacks in the AFC East. Over the past three seasons, the team has averaged just 40 sacks per year—an NFL mid-pack ranking. Carter, with 12 sacks and 43 solo tackles last season, could immediately elevate those numbers. Compared to Micah Parsons for his hybrid edge/linebacker role, Carter fits seamlessly into Vrabel’s 3-4 scheme. Without him, the Patriots may have to rely on aging veterans like Matthew Judon (now 33), who can’t carry the load forever.
The Giants nightmare.
Now imagine Carter shining in a Giants uniform—the team he’s openly admired. A brutal scenario: Carter logs 10 sacks as a rookie and leads New York to a playoff win over New England. Patriots fans would witness yet another MVP-caliber star thriving elsewhere, much like Lamar Jackson did. Headlines like “Patriots Let Another Star Slip Away” would flood the media.
Vrabel under pressure.
As a defense-first coach, Mike Vrabel needs a star like Carter to execute his vision. Without him, the team might have to overspend in free agency—possibly signing a player like Haason Reddick—sapping cap space from positions like wide receiver or offensive line. One draft mistake could spiral into financial and tactical setbacks, delaying the team’s rebuild.
The Way Forward: What Should the Patriots Do?
If Carter is off the board, New England still has options. James Pearce Jr. (Tennessee) and Nic Scourton (Texas A&M) are respectable edge prospects, but lack Carter’s hybrid versatility. Instead of gambling on a lesser version, the Patriots must learn from the past and act decisively.
The biggest lesson? Don’t play it too safe.
The Patriots’ best draft picks—Tom Brady in 2000, Rob Gronkowski in 2010—came from betting on upside despite risk. Carter may not be flawless, with past injury concerns and sky-high expectations, but he’s the kind of player who can transform a franchise. The scouting department and Vrabel must work in lockstep to ensure the fourth pick doesn’t become another N’Keal Harry or Sony Michel misstep.
Let the Debate Begin: Carter or Someone Else?
As the 2025 draft looms, Patriots fans face a defining question: Abdul Carter, or another missing piece? If you were the GM, who would you pick—an edge rusher built to dominate the AFC East, or a lineman to safeguard your future under center? What past draft miss stings the most for you—and does New England have the courage to bet big on Carter this time?