In an NFL landscape increasingly prioritizing positions like quarterback and wide receiver, the saga of Buffalo Bills running back James Cook and his demand for a $15 million per year contract has sparked a debate about the true value of running backs in today’s game. With 18 touchdowns and 1,267 yards from scrimmage in the 2024 season, Cook is aiming to join the ranks of the NFL’s highest-paid running backs. But is his financial demand justified? This article analyzes the salary trends for running backs, compares Cook’s performance to stars like Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, and Saquon Barkley, and offers a financial perspective on how teams weigh spending on this position under a constrained salary cap.
Salary Trends for Running Backs: A Declining Value
Historically, running backs were among the NFL’s highest-paid players. Legends like O.J. Simpson ($733,358 in 1977), Walter Payton ($500,000 in 1981), and Eric Dickerson ($1.3 million in 1989) were at the top of the league’s pay scale. However, in the modern era, the financial value of running backs has significantly declined due to shifts in strategy and team-building philosophy.
According to Over The Cap, only six running backs currently have contracts with an average annual value (AAV) of $10 million or more, compared to 13 tight ends and 34 wide receivers. Christian McCaffrey leads with $19 million per year, followed by Saquon Barkley ($12.6 million), Jonathan Taylor ($14 million), Alvin Kamara ($15 million), Josh Jacobs ($12 million), and James Conner ($9.5 million). Meanwhile, 17 safeties and even kickers like Justin Tucker ($6 million) outearn most running backs. This reflects a trend where teams prioritize spending on positions deemed more critical, such as quarterback, pass rusher, or offensive lineman.
This decline stems from several key factors:
Dominance of the passing game: The modern NFL emphasizes passing, with quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes and wide receivers like Tyreek Hill becoming the focal points of offensive schemes. Running backs are often seen as “system-dependent,” particularly reliant on the offensive line. Short career longevity: Data shows running back performance typically peaks at age 25 and declines significantly after 27. With an average career length of just 2.57 years, teams are hesitant to invest long-term in the position. Draft and free agency market: Teams can find young, cost-effective running backs through the NFL Draft or sign short-term deals with veterans like Aaron Jones ($7 million/year). For example, Jordan Mason of the 49ers, with a cap hit under $1 million, effectively replaced McCaffrey in 2024.
The 2024 season saw notable contracts, such as Barkley’s (3 years, $37.75 million with the Eagles) and Henry’s (2 years, $16 million with the Ravens), but the trend remains short-term or mid-tier deals. This begs the question: Can James Cook break through this barrier with a $15 million annual demand?
Performance Comparison: James Cook vs. McCaffrey, Henry, Barkley
To assess whether Cook’s $15 million demand is reasonable, we must compare his performance to the NFL’s top running backs. Below are key 2024 regular-season statistics:
| Player | Yards from Scrimmage | Rushing Yards | Touchdowns | Yards/Carry | Contract AAV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook (Bills) | 1,267 | 973 lisärows |
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