Keep an eye on Guerendo. He needs to fight for his job.

Will the San Francisco 49ers Trade Running Back Isaac Guerendo This Offseason?

The San Francisco 49ers face a pivotal offseason in 2025 as they aim to rebound from a disappointing 6-11 season in 2024. One of the more intriguing roster questions revolves around second-year running back Isaac Guerendo, whose name has surfaced in trade rumors following the team’s recent draft and free-agent moves. While Guerendo showed promise as a rookie, the 49ers’ crowded backfield and strategic roster decisions have sparked speculation about his future. This article explores whether the 49ers are likely to trade Guerendo this offseason, analyzing his performance, the team’s current depth chart, and the broader context of their offseason strategy.

Guerendo’s Rookie Season: A Mixed Bag of Potential and Challenges

Isaac Guerendo, a fourth-round pick (No. 129 overall) in the 2024 NFL Draft out of Louisville, entered the NFL with high expectations due to his blazing 4.33-second 40-yard dash and versatile skill set. His rookie season, however, was defined by both flashes of brilliance and areas for improvement. Stepping up after injuries to Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason, Guerendo averaged 5.0 yards per carry, amassing 420 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 84 attempts. He also showcased his receiving ability, catching 14 of 15 targets for 147 yards, projecting to a full-season pace of 34 receptions for 357 yards. Notable highlights included a 76-yard touchdown run against the Seattle Seahawks and a 102-yard rushing and receiving performance against the Dallas Cowboys.

Despite these flashes, Guerendo’s season was not without flaws. His upright running style exposed him to big hits, contributing to injuries that sidelined him at various points, including a sprained foot that made him questionable for a Thursday night game against the Los Angeles Rams. His tendency to “dance” in the backfield led to inconsistent decision-making, resulting in a 39% success rate on runs, comparable to less efficient backs like Ezekiel Elliott. Additionally, Guerendo struggled with negative rushing yards over expectation inside the tackles and poor rushing EPA outside the tackles, raising questions about his fit as a consistent RB2 behind McCaffrey.

The 49ers’ Backfield: Crowded and Competitive

The 49ers’ running back room is one of the most talented but also one of the most crowded in the NFL, which fuels trade speculation around Guerendo. Christian McCaffrey, the team’s All-Pro bell-cow back, remains the centerpiece of the offense, assuming he returns to full health after missing 13 games in 2024. However, McCaffrey’s injury history—he’ll turn 29 in 2025 and is coming off serious injuries—suggests the 49ers may rotate him more to preserve his longevity, creating opportunities for other backs.

The departure of Jordan Mason, traded to the Minnesota Vikings in a deal involving a 2026 sixth-round pick and a fifth-round pick swap, initially positioned Guerendo as the clear RB2 for 2025. However, the 49ers’ recent additions have complicated the picture. In the 2025 NFL Draft, they selected Oregon running back Jordan James in the fifth round, a bruising runner seen as a Day 2 value pick. They also signed Cincinnati’s Corey Kiner, Pro Football Network’s top-rated undrafted free agent (UDFA), who brings experience in a zone-running scheme similar to head coach Kyle Shanahan’s system. Both James and Kiner are noted for their decisive running styles, contrasting with Guerendo’s boom-or-bust tendencies.

Kiner, in particular, poses a threat to Guerendo’s roster spot. With back-to-back 1,000-yard rushing seasons in college and a 5.2 yards-per-carry average, Kiner also offers a stronger pass-catching pedigree than Guerendo, making him a potential fit for Shanahan’s offense. Pro Football Network suggested that with McCaffrey and James as likely roster locks, only a couple of backfield spots remain, putting Guerendo’s position in jeopardy.

Why Trade Guerendo? The Case for Moving On

Several factors make Guerendo a potential trade candidate. First, the 49ers’ history of drafting running backs—often one per year—reflects Shanahan’s philosophy that the position is interchangeable and expendable. Past draft picks like Trey Sermon, Tyrion-Davis Price, and Joe Williams were quickly moved on from when they failed to meet expectations, and Guerendo could face a similar fate if the team believes James or Kiner offer more immediate value.

Second, Guerendo’s inefficiencies and injury concerns raise doubts about his long-term reliability. His 39% success rate and struggles with decisiveness could frustrate Shanahan, who prioritizes consistency in his zone-running scheme. The addition of James and Kiner, both seen as more decisive runners, suggests the 49ers are hedging their bets. If Shanahan lacks trust in Guerendo as the RB2, trading him could net a late-round draft pick, aligning with the team’s cost-saving approach this offseason.

Third, the 49ers are in a roster-rebuilding phase after significant departures, including Deebo Samuel, Dre Greenlaw, Aaron Banks, Talanoa Hufanga, and Charvarius Ward. Trading Guerendo could provide draft capital to address more pressing needs, such as the defensive line or offensive line, especially with only 11 draft picks in 2025. Pro Football & Sports Network’s Sterling Xie named Guerendo as a trade candidate, noting that his athleticism might attract interest from other teams despite his inconsistencies.

Why Keep Guerendo? The Case for Patience

On the other hand, there are compelling reasons to retain Guerendo. His athleticism and dual-threat ability—evidenced by his 5.9 yards per carry (fourth-best among running backs with 40+ carries) and 10.1 yards per reception—make him a valuable asset in Shanahan’s system. His pass-catching prowess, with a near-perfect catch rate, adds a dimension that complements McCaffrey and could be vital if the 49ers aim to replace Deebo Samuel’s role as a hybrid receiver.

Moreover, Guerendo has earned praise from key figures within the organization. Christian McCaffrey lauded his growth and work ethic, noting his improvement throughout the 2024 season and his eagerness to learn. Head coach Kyle Shanahan also spoke highly of Guerendo, calling him a “big play guy who can run hard” and expressing optimism about his development after a tough rookie season. These endorsements suggest the 49ers see Guerendo as part of their future, particularly with Mason now in Minnesota.

Guerendo’s speed and home-run ability also align with the 49ers’ desire for a change-of-pace back. Run game coordinator Chris Foerster compared him to former 49ers running back Raheem Mostert, noting his “extra gear” that differentiates him from McCaffrey and other backs. With only 222 offensive snaps as a rookie, Guerendo’s limited sample size suggests he has room to grow, especially if he can improve his decisiveness and durability.

Finally, trading Guerendo may not yield significant value. As a second-year player with one year of modest production, he’s unlikely to command more than a late-round pick, which may not outweigh his potential contributions. The 49ers’ decision to trade up for him in 2024 indicates they saw long-term value, and cutting bait after one season would be uncharacteristic unless James or Kiner clearly outshine him in training camp.

The Bigger Picture: Shanahan’s Philosophy and Financial Constraints

The 49ers’ offseason moves reflect a delicate balance between rebuilding and maintaining competitiveness. Ownership’s directive to clear cap space has led to significant roster turnover, with the team shedding high-profile players to address financial hurdles. Trading Mason, a proven performer, for minimal draft capital underscores their willingness to prioritize flexibility over sentimentality. However, the 49ers also extended George Kittle and re-signed Kyle Juszczyk, signaling a commitment to retaining core pieces.

Shanahan’s approach to running backs is particularly telling. He’s on record stating that most teams cycle through three to four running backs per season due to injuries, which explains the 49ers’ annual draft investments at the position. While Guerendo’s injury history aligns with this reality, his upside as a dual-threat back could make him a cost-effective complement to McCaffrey, especially with Mitchell’s free agency looming and Mason gone.

The 2025 running back draft class is reportedly deep, which could tempt the 49ers to add another prospect, further crowding the backfield. However, with McCaffrey’s $38 million extension and the team’s limited cap space, relying on Guerendo’s rookie contract (signed through 2027) makes financial sense. Trading him would only be logical if the 49ers are confident in James and Kiner or if they receive an unexpectedly strong offer.

What’s the Verdict?

The likelihood of the 49ers trading Isaac Guerendo this offseason hinges on his performance in training camp and the team’s confidence in their new additions. While trade rumors, fueled by sources like Pro Football Network and 49ers Webzone, highlight Guerendo’s vulnerabilities—namely his inconsistency and the emergence of Jordan James and Corey Kiner—the 49ers have strong incentives to keep him. His athleticism, pass-catching ability, and endorsements from McCaffrey and Shanahan suggest he remains a favorite to secure the RB2 role, especially with McCaffrey’s health concerns and the team’s need for cost-effective talent.

That said, the 49ers’ history of ruthlessly churning their running back room cannot be ignored. If James or Kiner outperform Guerendo in the offseason, or if another team offers a compelling trade package, the 49ers could move him to gain draft capital or address other roster holes. For now, Guerendo is more likely to stay than go, but his roster spot is far from guaranteed. As Pro Football Network noted, he’s “still viewed as a favorite” for a roster spot, but the 49ers’ decisive additions signal that he must prove his worth.

Conclusion

Isaac Guerendo’s future with the San Francisco 49ers remains uncertain but leans toward retention. His rookie season showcased tantalizing potential, but his inconsistencies and the team’s new backfield additions have placed him under scrutiny. While a trade is possible, particularly if the 49ers prioritize draft capital or roster flexibility, Guerendo’s unique skill set and the team’s investment in him make it more likely he’ll get a chance to compete for the RB2 role in 2025. Fans and analysts alike will be watching closely as training camp unfolds, where Guerendo’s performance could determine whether he stays in San Francisco or becomes the latest 49ers running back to be shipped out.