With the 2025 NFL Draft looming on April 24, 2025, the New England Patriots face a pivotal decision at the No. 4 overall pick. Assuming top prospects Travis Hunter and Abdul Carter are off the board, analysts and mock drafts point to the Patriots addressing their glaring need at left tackle, with LSU’s Will Campbell and Missouri’s Armand Membou as the leading candidates. Other possibilities include strengthening the defensive line with players like Michigan’s Mason Graham or Georgia’s Jalon Walker, or trading down if a quarterback-hungry team seeks to move up for someone like Shedeur Sanders. Below is a comprehensive breakdown of the Patriots’ most likely options, based on team needs, prospect evaluations, and current draft sentiment.
Primary Options at No. 4
1. Will Campbell (OT, LSU)
Why He Fits: The Patriots’ offensive line was a liability in 2024, allowing pressure on 39.4% of dropbacks, the highest rate in the NFL. Campbell, a 6’6”, 322-pound left tackle, brings elite experience with 38 starts in the SEC, one of college football’s toughest conferences. His technical prowess, footwork, and ability to anchor against power rushers make him a plug-and-play starter to protect quarterback Drake Maye. Paired with newly signed right tackle Morgan Moses, Campbell could solidify the bookends of New England’s line. Analysts like ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. frequently project Campbell to the Patriots, citing his readiness to address their most pressing need.
Concerns: Campbell’s arm length (32⅝ inches) is shorter than the NFL’s ideal threshold for tackles (typically 33+ inches), raising questions about his ability to handle longer edge rushers. However, head coach Mike Vrabel has downplayed these concerns, expressing confidence in Campbell’s ability to play left tackle at the pro level.
Analyst Support: Campbell is a near-consensus pick in mock drafts from sources like ESPN, The Athletic’s Nick Baumgardner, and CBS Sports, who highlight his fit for New England’s urgent need to protect Maye and improve the run game.
Likelihood: High. Campbell’s experience and fit make him the frontrunner if the top playmakers are gone.
2. Armand Membou (OT, Missouri)
Why He Fits: Membou, at 6’4” and 332 pounds, offers prototypical size and arm length (33.5 inches), addressing concerns about Campbell’s measurements. His athleticism is exceptional for his size, with a 4.91-second 40-yard dash and a 94 athleticism score per NFL Next Gen Stats. In 2024, he allowed zero sacks, per Pro Football Focus, showcasing his pass-protection prowess. While primarily a right tackle in college, Membou’s physical tools suggest he can transition to the left side, offering long-term upside to anchor the Patriots’ line.
Concerns: Membou’s lack of experience at left tackle may necessitate an adjustment period, and some analysts rank Campbell higher due to his proven track record in the SEC, a more competitive conference than the Big 12, where Missouri played. Membou’s technique also needs refinement to match Campbell’s polish.
Analyst Support: Mock drafts from NFL.com, Boston.com, and The Ringer frequently link Membou to the Patriots, with analysts like NFL Network’s Nick Edholm noting his potential to play left tackle despite his college position.
Likelihood: Moderate to high. Membou is a strong alternative to Campbell, particularly if the Patriots prioritize physical traits and upside.
3. Mason Graham (DT, Michigan)
Why He Fits: Despite recent additions like Milton Williams, the Patriots could target a high-upside defensive lineman like Graham, ranked as The Athletic’s Dane Brugler’s No. 4 overall prospect. At 6’3” and 313 pounds, Graham is slightly undersized but boasts elite athleticism and versatility, capable of playing multiple roles along the defensive front. His ability to disrupt both the pass and run games would complement Christian Barmore and Keion White, providing insurance against Barmore’s injury concerns. Graham’s fit in Vrabel’s aggressive defensive scheme makes him an intriguing option.
Concerns: Defensive tackle is a lower-priority need compared to offensive tackle, given the Patriots’ offensive line struggles. Selecting Graham could be viewed as a luxury pick, especially with pressing needs on offense.
Analyst Support: Mocks from The Athletic and NBC Sports Boston occasionally project Graham to the Patriots, emphasizing his potential to elevate an already solid defensive front.
Likelihood: Moderate. Graham is a viable option if the Patriots’ draft board prioritizes best player available over immediate need.
4. Jalon Walker (EDGE, Georgia)
Why He Fits: Walker, Brugler’s No. 3 overall prospect, is a versatile 6’2”, 245-pound defender who played off-ball linebacker in college but projects as an edge rusher in the NFL. The Patriots’ pass rush was abysmal in 2024, ranking last in the NFL with only 28 sacks. Walker’s speed, explosiveness, and ability to set the edge could address this deficiency, adding a dynamic playmaker to Vrabel’s defense. Concerns: Like Graham, Walker addresses a secondary need compared to offensive tackle. His transition to a full-time edge rusher carries some risk, as he lacks extensive experience in that role. The Patriots’ “best player available” philosophy would need to heavily favor Walker for him to leapfrog offensive line prospects. Analyst Support: Walker is a less common projection but appears in mocks from The Athletic and Pro Football Network as a dark-horse option for New England. Likelihood: Low to moderate. Walker is a fallback if the Patriots are enamored with his upside and prioritize defense.
5. Trade Down Scenario
Why It Fits: If Hunter, Carter, and top quarterbacks like Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders are unavailable, trade interest in the No. 4 pick may be limited, as noted by The Athletic. However, a quarterback-needy team like the Las Vegas Raiders (No. 6) or New Orleans Saints (No. 9) could offer to move up for Sanders, allowing the Patriots to acquire additional draft capital. This would enable them to target a tackle like Oregon’s Josh Conerly Jr., Texas’ Kelvin Banks Jr., or Arizona’s Jonah Savaiinaea later in the first round while addressing other needs (e.g., wide receiver or edge rusher) with extra picks.
Concerns: Trading down risks missing out on a blue-chip talent in a draft class that reportedly drops off after the top tier, per draft analysts. Vrabel’s comments about uncertainty regarding other teams’ plans suggest limited trade discussions, reducing the feasibility of this option. The Patriots would need a compelling offer to move back.
Analyst Support: Outlets like Pats Pulpit and NBC Sports Boston view trading down as plausible but challenging, identifying the Raiders, Saints, or even the Carolina Panthers as potential trade partners.
Likelihood: Low. The lack of confirmed trade interest and the Patriots’ need for a high-impact player make staying at No. 4 more likely.
Current Sentiment and Strategic Considerations
Uncertainty at the Top
Head coach Mike Vrabel has acknowledged the Patriots’ limited insight into the intentions of the Tennessee Titans (No. 1), Cleveland Browns (No. 2), and New York Giants (No. 3). Vrabel quipped, “Tennessee is not calling. Cleveland is not calling,” highlighting the challenge of predicting whether Hunter or Carter will be available. This uncertainty forces the Patriots to prepare for multiple scenarios, with a focus on prospects like Campbell and Membou as safe bets.
Draft Board Finalization
The Patriots are in the final stages of setting their draft board, with Vrabel emphasizing ongoing simulations to account for various outcomes. This suggests flexibility in their approach, whether staying at No. 4 to select a tackle or entertaining trade-down offers. The team’s “best player available” philosophy, championed by personnel chief Eliot Wolf, could lead to a surprise defensive pick like Graham or Walker if they are rated significantly higher than available offensive linemen.
Fan and Analyst Sentiment
Posts on X reflect a mix of optimism and pragmatism among Patriots fans. Some hope for a scenario where Hunter or Carter falls to No. 4 (e.g., one user speculated Hunter to Cleveland, Sanders to the Giants, and Carter to the Patriots), but most acknowledge that both will likely be gone. Will Campbell is frequently cited as a realistic and necessary pick to address the offensive line. Mock drafts from major outlets like ESPN, NFL.com, and The Athletic reinforce this, with Campbell appearing in over 50% of projections for the Patriots.
Critical Factors
Offensive Line Priority: The Patriots’ 2024 offensive line struggles (39.4% pressure rate, 56 sacks allowed) make left tackle the clear priority. Campbell’s experience and Vrabel’s confidence in his ability to overcome arm length concerns position him as the likely choice, though Membou’s physical traits keep him in contention.
Best Player Available Philosophy: Wolf’s draft approach could lead to a defensive pick if Graham or Walker is deemed a generational talent, though this seems less likely given the offensive line’s dire state.
Trade Dynamics: The Athletic notes limited trade interest for the No. 4 pick, suggesting the Patriots may be forced to stay put unless a late offer emerges. The Raiders and Saints, both projected to need quarterbacks, are the most likely trade partners.
Draft Class Context: Analysts describe the 2025 draft as top-heavy, with a significant drop-off after the first 10-12 picks. This reduces the appeal of trading down unless the Patriots are confident in landing a high-quality tackle like Conerly or Banks later in the first round.
Conclusion
With Travis Hunter and Abdul Carter likely off the board, the New England Patriots’ most probable course at No. 4 is to select LSU offensive tackle Will Campbell, driven by their urgent need to protect Drake Maye and bolster the offensive line. Campbell’s experience and technical skill make him the frontrunner, though Missouri’s Armand Membou remains a strong alternative due to his superior physical traits. Defensive prospects like Mason Graham or Jalon Walker are less likely but could be considered if the Patriots prioritize best player available. Trading down is a possibility, but limited interest and the risk of missing a top-tier talent make it a long shot. As the Patriots finalize their draft board through simulations, their decision will hinge on prospect rankings and any last-minute trade opportunities.