We are less than a month away from the beginning of the legal tampering period and the Minnesota Vikings are primed to do some major damage in free agency.
One thing that matters when it comes to free agency is having the cap space to prioritize bringing in players to elevate the roster. Before they target any outside candidates, they need to figure out who the will target among their own free agents.
There are quite a few high-profile free agents the Vikings need to decide on, but the biggest is once again at the quarterback position. Will the Vikings bring back Sam Darnold? It’s been discussed until we are all blue in the face, but it’s going to persist until there is a definitive answer.
NFL analyst predicts Sam Darnold’s team in 2025
Everyone is going to have their own predictions on what will happen. Some will be based in information gathered from throughout the league while others will use their own opinions. ESPN’s Ben Solak gave his opinion which is likely rooted in both.
I really, truly believe the Vikings will extend Darnold. They have the room for something in the Daniel Jones neighborhood — four years, $160 million is probably optimal, if they can get Darnold to sign that before another team in the free market offers him a whale of a deal. Depending on the size of the contract, they’ll either keep McCarthy or quietly look to trade him ahead of a bad quarterback draft class and see if a needy team takes the bait.
There is a lot to break down here.
First, the idea of trading McCarthy is something that the Vikings don’t seem to be entertaining. Then again, why would they entertain a trade at this point? It would
Give up their leverage Giving up on the 10th overall pick on a cheap contract isn’t good business
McCarthy has a paltry $4.97 million salary cap hit in 2025, which is what the Vikings would likely pay a backup quarterback anyway. However, there is a good argument that McCarthy would be the first overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft. If they were able to get a massive haul for him via trade, it could behoove the Vikings to make it work.
The other major element here is the contract for Darnold. He would be getting an average of $40 million per season. That seems like a lot for what he’s done so far in his career, but it would fit his performance.
At $40 million per season, Darnold would be tied for 16th in the National Football League among quarterbacks with Matthew Stafford of the Los Angeles Rams tied with him in that spot. Ahead of Darnold are the following quarterbacks who he outplayed in 2024:
Trevor Lawrence: $55 million AAV Jordan Love: $55 million AAV Kyler Murray: $46.1 million AAV Deshaun Watson: $46 million AAV Kirk Cousins: $45 million AAV
Sure, you would ideally like to get him signed to a contract closer to Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield (3 years, $100 million, $33.33 million AAV), but the Jones contract is certainly fair for Darnold.
There is one other element to consider here. Due to the void year that the Vikings have, they can’t officially give him a raise until a year after his contract was signed due to the CBA, which would be after the new league year officially starts. If they do want to bring him back, it’s an unfortunate reality for the Vikings, but re-signing him to a long-term deal wasn’t in the cards until Thanksgiving.
What will happen will come to fruition over the next four weeks, and the Vikings likely haven’t officially made that decision yet.