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The Vikings’ Roster Cannot Bear the Weight Of A Sam Darnold Contract

Posted on January 24, 2025 - 6:17 am by

There are many people in this space who do great work tracking and analyzing the finances of NFL team-building, and I do not pretend to be one of them. However, I’m marginally more informed than the average fan about cap space, contracts, and understanding void years.

But even I can see an untenable situation when it slaps me in the face.

I wrote last week about Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s list of priorities in free agency, particularly on the offensive line. In that piece, I operated under the assumption that the Minnesota Vikings would have roughly $70 million in cap space. They could use most of that money to re-sign their long list of pending free agents and shore up some of the obvious holes on the roster. That becomes feasible assuming that Adofo-Mensah is operating with the freedom of a team-friendly rookie quarterback contract and the team is moving forward with J.J. McCarthy.

However, according to many reputable national reporters, I’ve spoken too soon. The growing national narrative is that the Vikings will and should re-sign Sam Darnold, which will cost them roughly $40 million per year, a legitimate market rate for a starting quarterback.

These are not just random blogs or daytime shock jocks looking for attention. These are reputable media members who have my respect. Pundits like Tom Pelissero and Benjamin Solak have speculated on the Darnold situation and claimed Sam would likely return to Minnesota.

At a glance, I think many national onlookers see a situation where the Vikings may have stumbled onto a diamond in the rough in Darnold. He managed to achieve success far beyond expectations, and it would be crazy to ruin a good situation in favor of McCarthy, who was perceived as a handoff merchant carried by one of the best teams in college football — and who then tore up his knee in his first pre-season outing. They see a Darnold in hand and think it’s more valuable than the possibility of a good McCarthy (and $70 million) in the bush. Not faulty logic on the surface level.

I’m not arguing that Darnold didn’t play well enough to warrant being a starting quarterback. I’m not even arguing that the sour taste in our mouths from Darnold’s collapse in the final two games should make us overlook his incredible body of work from 2024 that won Minnesota 14 games. I’m arguing that the Vikings have already made their bed with their team-building strategy, and now they need to lie in it, even if that means letting a good player walk out the door.

Ultimately, the reasoning behind letting Darnold walk is threefold:

The organization absolutely loves J.J. McCarthy. Darnold played too well to warrant a bargain-bin contract. Most importantly, the Vikings roster that helped Darnold flourish will crumble under the weight of a Darnold deal.

Minnesota’s scheduled free agents played a whopping 45% of the total snaps on offense and defense combined last year, the most in the league. Before this team can even think about improving in crucial areas, they have to sign a little less than half of their roster back with the team.

Both starting corners Both starting safeties Their replacement left tackle Their backup to their replacement left tackle Starting left guard Top two running backs Multiple players on the defensive line

All are slated to hit the market and will quickly eat up a big chunk of that $70 million. The Vikings also have a desperate need to improve upon in the interior of both the offensive and defensive lines, and they have a new secondary to piece together.

Kwesi Adofo-Mensah constructed the roster around this plan. They spent well in free agency last year and were aggressive in their Day 1 draft strategy to move up for McCarthy and Dallas Turner. He did so knowing that they would not have much in the way of draft capital in 2025. Instead, they could make up for it with the cheat code of a rookie deal at QB. You don’t make the Turner trade in 2024 if you aren’t confident you have the tools to kill it in free agency again the following year.

Instead, imagine Adofo-Mensah forsook that plan. If he decided he liked what he saw too much from Darnold and wanted to make him their guy going forward, what’s the best-case scenario for getting pieces around him?

You’d be facing tough decisions on guys like Byron Murphy and Cam Bynum, who are primed to get market rate at their respective positions, and you’d be hamstrung in your ability to invest in the necessary additions along the line of scrimmage. And all of this simply to find yourself in an awkward Jordan Love/Michael Penix situation where you’re asking a player to ride the pine and lose valuable time in the most cost-effective window of their career.

Teams can be competitive at the highest levels with market-rate deals on starting quarterbacks. I’m also not trying to say that a rookie deal is the only way to win because one only needs to look at the current playoff field and see that it isn’t true. Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, and Patrick Mahomes all make big money and are among the three favorites for the Super Bowl. However, overcoming a loss in one type of capital requires a surplus in another, and the Vikings didn’t set themselves up with that situation in mind.

Minnesota should strive to run it back with last season’s overachieving roster and improve upon it. They’ve got a decent amount of money to work with. However, we’d be surprised how fast it gets eaten up, especially with Darnold on the books. And their complete lack of draft capital means the odds of them putting together a draft class of affordable young talent are stacked against them.

I loved what Darnold did for Minnesota this year. Even with the bitter ending to the season, I’ll always have a distinct memory of the deep bomb to Jefferson against the San Francisco 49ers, or how he clutched up against the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers this season.

I predict there will be moments in 2025 when McCarthy struggles and people begin questioning the decision to let Darnold walk. I hope Darnold plays well enough wherever he goes next that it makes that question even harder to answer. I like Darnold, and I genuinely wish him well.

That said, consider my flag planted. Don’t get cold feet because of an errant crush. This organization chose J.J. McCarthy and invested in him for a reason, and the future is much brighter with a competitive roster prepared to lift him up. They can only manifest that vision by being prudent and bold enough to trust your process and invest wisely this offseason.