It’s not uncommon for athletes and teams to exceed expectations. Whether it’s through an individual performance or piecing it together over the course of a season, the result can look entirely different than the prediction.
The 2024 Vikings are one of those instances. Going into the season, the over/under win projection total for Minnesota was 6.5 wins, and many predicted a fourth-place finish in the NFC North division standings.
Minnesota not only reached that win total 18 days before Thanksgiving, but it has since exceeded it by 6.5 just in time for Christmas. According to Pro Football Reference, that is tied for the second-best differential among 1,711 teams through 15 games since 1989, joining the 2004 Steelers (7.5 preseason win total; 14-1 record through 15 games) and Chargers (4.5 preseason win total; 11-4 record) and the 1999 Colts (6.5 preseason win total; 13-2 record). Only the 1999 Rams (5.5 preseason win total; 13-2 record) had a higher differential at 7.5.
For reference, the 1998 Vikings – who finished with a 15-1 regular-season record – exceeded their preseason win total of 8.5 by 5.5 through 15 games. This season is just the second time in franchise history Minnesota has started 13-2 or better, joining that ’98 club.
Minnesota’s latest win – a 27-24 comeback over Seattle on Sunday – was the team’s eighth in a row, it’s longest streak since 2017. It is now the longest active streak in the NFL after Philadelphia’s 10-game win streak was snapped earlier in the day in a 36-33 loss to Washington in the final seconds.
Vikings Head Coach Kevin O’Connell also became the first head coach in franchise history with multiple 13-win seasons in his career. He also joined George Seifert and Matt LaFleur as the only coaches in league history with multiple 13-win seasons in their first three as an NFL head coach.
Sam Darnold completed 22 of his 35 pass attempts on Sunday for 246 yards, three touchdowns and no turnovers. His 32 passing touchdowns in 2024 moved him past Kirk Cousins (30 in 2018) for the second-most TD passes by a QB in his first season as a Viking, and now only needs two more to surpass Brett Favre’s mark of 33 set in 2009.
Darnold also had a passer rating of 112.3 against Seattle, his 12th such game of 100+ passer rating. He now holds the NFL record for most games with a 100+ passer rating in a player’s first season with a team since 1950.
Aaron Jones, Sr., surpassed the 1,000-yard rushing mark for the season on Sunday with an 18-carry, 67-yard game, becoming just the third player to reach 1,000 rushing yards in his first season with the Vikings, joining Adrian Peterson (1,341 in 2007) and Chester Taylor (1,216 in 2006).
Justin Jefferson finished the afternoon with 10 catches for a season-high 144 yards and two touchdowns, including the go-ahead 39-yard score with 3:51 remaining. It was Jefferson’s 34th career 100-yard receiving game, passing Torry Holt for the third-most games with 100+ receiving yards in a players first six NFL seasons in league history.
Defensively, Andrew Van Ginkel recorded a pair of sacks to give himself 11 on the season, joining Jonathan Greenard as the second Viking to exceed 10-plus sacks in 2024. It’s just the 12th time in team history that multiple players have reached double-digit sack totals in a season and the fourth since 2000. Van Ginkel, who was named the NFC Defensive Player of the Week on Tuesday, became the second player since 1960 to have 10-plus sacks and two or more pick-sixes in a season, joining Pro Football Hall of Famer Jason Taylor (2006 season).
Minnesota’s victory also helped boost the team in this week’s Power Rankings, with the biggest jump being one spot. Here’s where the Vikings rank going into Week 17:
No. 4 (up 1 spot): NFL Staff, Bleacher Report
The Sam Darnold-led Minnesota Vikings keep right on rolling.
Darnold threw for 246 yards and three scores against the Seahawks, including the game-winner to Justin Jefferson with less than four minutes to play. In the postgame press conference, Head Coach Kevin O’Connell said that the Vikings never doubted that they would leave the Emerald City with a victory.
“There wasn’t really one guy – and I know I’m not speaking just for myself – (who didn’t think) we’re going to go down and we’re going to get a touchdown,” O’Connell said. “And I think the level of confidence that that group has in their quarterback and the level of confidence the quarterback has in the 10 guys in the huddle is significant. And that’s how you’re able to go do that in that moment on the road at this place where you can’t hear yourself think.”
At 13-2, the Vikings are tied with the scorching-hot Lions for the best record in the NFC – setting up a Week 18 meeting between the teams that could determine home-field advantage throughout the NFL playoffs.
“At 13-2, the Vikings are the NFL’s best story,” Bleacher Report NFL analyst Brent Sobleski said. “Their addition of Sam Darnold wasn’t supposed to be more than a bridge to first-round quarterback J.J. McCarthy. This year’s [10th] overall pick suffered a season-ending knee injury in preseason. Instead, Darnold emerged as the franchise-caliber quarterback many envisioned in the 2018 NFL draft when the New York Jets chose him with the third overall pick. Kevin O’Connell should be the front-runner for NFL Coach of the Year. Also, Minnesota remains within striking distance of the NFC’s No. 1 overall seed despite sitting in the fifth spot. Skol!”
No. 4 (up 1 spot): Pete Prisco, CBS Sports
If [the Vikings] win out, they have the top seed in the NFC. But the schedule is tough with games against Green Bay and Detroit to close it out.
No. 5 (no change): Nate Davis, USA Today
Kevin O’Connell has been on the job for three seasons and is already the only coach in the franchise’s 63-year history to win 13 regular-season games twice. Seems like an achievement worthy of one of those signature Vikes on-field celebrations.
No. 5 (no change): Josh Kendall, The Athletic
We’re running out of reasons to write off the Vikings, who have clinched a playoff spot and still could earn the top seed in the NFC. The anti-Minnesota folks are still holding out hope Sam Darnold will turn into a pumpkin, but he’s fourth in the league in passer rating (105.4) and fifth in touchdown passes (32). Against the Seahawks, he threw three touchdown passes and found Justin Jefferson 10 times for 144 yards.
No. 4 (up 1 spot): Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News
The Vikings got into a shootout with the Seahawks, but Justin Jefferson is the gift that keeps on giving when their passing game and offense overall needs it most.
No. 5 (no change): Frank Schwab, Yahoo! Sports
The Vikings comeback win Sunday vs. the Seahawks was just their second this season in which they trailed in the final five minutes (Week 13 vs. Arizona was the other). Getting that game-winning drive from Sam Darnold builds character. They’ll likely be in a similar situation at some point in the postseason.